SoftBank

SFTBY · Financial Services · Business

Mentions

Podcasts

Episodes

Podcast consensus

Points of consensus

▶Multiple sources report that SoftBank is leading or co-leading a massive funding round for OpenAI, with the total investment figure frequently cited as $40 billion.Mar–Apr 2026

▶The WeWork IPO failure in late 2019 had a direct and immediate impact on SoftBank's investment activity, causing the firm to halt new investments and pull out of at least one planned funding round for Airwallex.Mar 2026

▶There has been a significant negative shift in the perception of SoftBank among founders and other VCs, with the firm being described as 'taboo' and creating 'adverse selection' problems for itself.Apr 2026

▶SoftBank's investment in OpenAI is structured in tranches, with an initial payment followed by a larger, subsequent payment.Mar–Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶The total size and co-investors in the OpenAI funding round are reported inconsistently. Claims range from a $40 billion round led by SoftBank, to a $122 billion round co-led with Andreessen Horowitz and DE Shore, to a $500 billion joint AI initiative with Oracle and OpenAI.Mar–Apr 2026

▶The fundamental validity of SoftBank's investment thesis is debated. One source speculates their strategy was correct and only failed due to a macroeconomic pullback, while others describe it as creating risky, over-inflated valuations with high liquidation preferences that put common stock at risk.Apr 2026

▶The specific amount SoftBank invested in OpenAI is unclear. One source claims SoftBank contributed $30 billion of a $40 billion round, while others describe SoftBank as a lead or co-lead investor without specifying its exact share of the total.Mar–Apr 2026

▶The timing of the second tranche for the OpenAI investment is described differently. One source states the additional $30 billion will be invested at the end of 2025, while another simply says it will be a second tranche following an initial $10 billion.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Aggressive, Large-Scale AI InvestmentApr 2026

SoftBank is making monumental investments in the AI sector, participating in funding initiatives for OpenAI, Oracle, and Intel with figures cited in the tens of billions, and even up to $500 billion for a joint initiative. This strategy involves co-leading massive rounds and committing capital in structured tranches, indicating a deep conviction in the future of AI.

SoftBank is attempting to replicate its past success with large, category-defining bets (like Alibaba) in the AI space, leveraging its ability to deploy massive amounts of capital to secure significant stakes in foundational AI companies.

▶Shift in Founder and Investor PerceptionApr 2026

Once a highly coveted late-stage investor, SoftBank's reputation has soured among some founders and venture capitalists. The firm, along with Tiger Global, is now sometimes viewed as 'taboo,' leading to adverse selection where potentially stronger companies may avoid taking their capital. Other investors have also grown cautious of companies with SoftBank on the cap table due to concerns about high liquidation preference stacks.

This reputational damage could hinder SoftBank's deal flow and ability to invest in the most promising companies, forcing it to either pay higher premiums or invest in companies that have been passed over by other top-tier VCs.

▶The WeWork Watershed MomentMar 2026

The failure of the WeWork IPO in late 2019 is identified as a pivotal event that directly impacted SoftBank's investment behavior. It caused the firm to abruptly halt new investments, as evidenced by its decision to pull out of a planned funding round for Airwallex, forcing the company to seek alternative financing.

This event demonstrates a clear inflection point where SoftBank's risk tolerance and investment cadence were forcibly re-evaluated, showing the systemic impact that one high-profile failure can have on a fund's entire portfolio strategy.

▶Differentiated Investment StrategiesMar 2026

SoftBank does not apply a monolithic investment approach across all sectors. Masayoshi Son's strategy for marketplace companies is described as more financially oriented and focused on profitability, contrasting with his approach for deep tech investments, suggesting a more nuanced evaluation process than the firm is often given credit for.

Analysts should avoid generalizing SoftBank's investment thesis and instead evaluate its deals based on the specific sector, as the firm's expectations for profitability and growth may differ significantly between a marketplace and a deep tech company.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Mar 2026

2 bullish, 1 bearish, 2 neutral(5 claims)

Masayoshi Son's investment approach for marketplace companies is more financiall...

Apr 2026

9 bullish, 4 bearish, 2 neutral(15 claims)

Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank have announced a joint investment initiative totali...

Changes over time

Early History

SoftBank establishes a key early partnership, structuring Alibaba's marketplace Taobao as a 50-50 joint venture, which Alibaba later bought out.

2019

At the peak of its late-stage investment activity, SoftBank Vision Fund leads a ~$450 million round for Get Your Guide, valuing the company at over $1.5 billion.

Late 2019

The WeWork IPO failure triggers a sudden halt in SoftBank's new investment activities, causing the firm to pull out of a planned funding round for Airwallex.

2020-2021

Discourse shifts as the perception of SoftBank sours. Other investors become cautious of its portfolio companies due to high valuations and liquidation preferences, and founders begin to view the firm as 'taboo'.

Present

SoftBank pivots to an aggressive AI-focused strategy, participating in massive, multi-billion dollar funding rounds and initiatives for companies like OpenAI and Intel.

Suggested prompts

How has SoftBank's investment thesis evolved from the 'blitzscaling' era of marketplace investments to its current focus on large-scale AI infrastructure? &nearr;What are the conflicting details surrounding SoftBank's investment in OpenAI, and what do these discrepancies imply about the deal's structure and public reporting? &nearr;To what extent was the negative shift in founder perception a result of the WeWork failure versus broader macroeconomic trends, as suggested by some sources? &nearr;What are the financial risks for SoftBank in its strategy of borrowing to fund massive capital calls for its AI investments, such as the one in OpenAI? &nearr;

Key concepts

OpenAI Investment 5 ep Investment Strategy & Thesis 4 ep AI Development 4 ep Portfolio Company Funding 3 ep Founder Perception & Adverse Selection 2 ep Specific Investments (Intel, Arm) 2 ep WeWork IPO Impact 1 ep Macroeconomic Factors 1 ep

Notable quotes

“So you could argue that all of their theses were correct, right? Like SoftBank was actually right and Tiger was right. And it was actually a macro issue that caused all the pullback.”

Martine · Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?

“SoftBank going to lead around. And this WeWork stuff happened. And we were like, and they stopped investing”

Jack · Airwallex CEO & Co-Founder, Jack Zhang: The Angel That Turned $1M into $1BN

“they closed a $40 billion round of financing, $30 billion from SoftBank, $10 billion from the syndicate of investors.”

Logan Bartlett · The Tariff Trap, Self-Inflicted Recession Risk, and Open AI’s Fundraise

“you just saw like the announcement with oracle open ai and softbank for 500 billion”

Greg Little · How Palantir Is Modernizing the Military With AI

Report last updated: Apr 20, 2026

Get started free

Back to Entities Intelligence Report