Martin

Partner at Index Ventures with a focus on early-stage technology and fintech investing.

Mentions

Appeared in

Discussed in

Key positions and views

Mega-funds are a distraction for early-stage investing and primarily benefit VCs financially, not the entrepreneurs they back [2, 5, 8].

Poor gross margins in early-stage companies (e.g., Revolut, Snowflake, LLM providers) should not deter investment as they are not indicative of long-term potential [10, 20, 36].

Large social networks like TikTok, X, and Facebook should be regulated as public utilities with public, auditable algorithms to ensure fairness and transparency [7].

Europe requires 'tech sovereignty,' necessitating its own foundational technology providers, particularly in AI, to serve government and quasi-government entities [26].

The Midas List is a lagging indicator that reflects historical success rather than identifying the best investors of the present day [6].

Podcast consensus on Martin

Points of consensus

▶Martin consistently advocates for a focused, early-stage venture capital model, critiquing the trend of mega-funds and 'asset gathering' across multiple claims [2, 5, 8].Mar 2026

▶He repeatedly uses past investment experiences, both successes (Revolut) and failures (passing on Spotify), to illustrate key lessons about investor bias and strategy [11, 25].Mar 2026

▶He has a clear investment thesis in foundational AI, demonstrated by investments in LLM providers and detailed commentary on the technology's economics and requirements [4, 10, 13, 14, 26].Mar 2026

▶He views the European tech ecosystem as a distinct and strategic investment area, emphasizing regulatory advantages and the need for 'tech sovereignty' [26, 38, 39].Mar 2026

Points of debate

▶Martin's view that the VC industry remains a high-margin, boutique business is in direct opposition to Doug Leone's assessment that it has become low-margin and commoditized [19].Mar 2026

▶His investment in Revolut was highly controversial internally at Index Ventures, with US partners being less convinced due to its FX product and negative gross margins, highlighting internal disagreement on the deal's viability [20].Mar 2026

▶While Martin advocates for ignoring poor early-stage gross margins [36], this is a contentious position in venture capital, where a clear path to profitability is often a key diligence item.Mar 2026

▶Martin's advocacy for regulating large social networks as public utilities [7] represents a significant interventionist stance that would likely be debated by free-market proponents within the tech and venture communities.Mar 2026

Key themes

▶Venture Capital ContrarianismMar 2026

Martin critiques the industry trend of VCs becoming large 'asset gatherers,' arguing that mega-funds misalign incentives and cannot generate traditional venture returns. He champions a more focused, early-stage approach where price is not a barrier and conviction is key.

This positions Index Ventures as a boutique, founder-focused firm, which could be a key part of their branding and deal flow strategy against larger competitors.

▶The Scars of ExperienceMar 2026

Martin openly discusses how past investment outcomes, both positive and negative, created biases that led to significant missed opportunities. The mediocre return from Last.fm led to passing on Spotify, while the success of Revolut led to passing on Qonto.

This highlights the psychological challenges of venture investing, where pattern recognition can be both a powerful tool and a blinding bias, suggesting that a structured process to counteract biases is critical for long-term success.

▶European Tech AdvocacyMar 2026

Martin emphasizes the importance of a strong, independent European tech ecosystem, citing the need for 'tech sovereignty' in areas like AI. He is actively involved in initiatives like EU Inc. to reduce friction for companies scaling across the continent, viewing regulatory advantages like the EU's 'passporting' system as a key enabler for companies like Revolut.

Martin's perspective suggests that geopolitical and regulatory landscapes are becoming as important as technological innovation for investors evaluating opportunities in Europe.

▶Investing in Foundational AIMar 2026

Martin is actively investing in the foundational layer of AI, specifically LLM providers like Cohere and Mistral AI, despite predicting lower venture multiples compared to past tech cycles. He understands the technical nuances, such as the rapid decrease in token costs and the unique expertise required for building world models.

His investment thesis in AI appears to be less about capturing outlier financial returns and more about securing a strategic position in a technologically transformative and potentially sovereign-critical layer of the tech stack.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Mar 2026

4 bullish, 4 bearish, 10 neutral(18 claims)

Martin believes that for early-stage investing, having mega-fund-sized assets is...

Apr 2026

2 neutral(2 claims)

Specialist defense firms such as Hughes, Douglas, and Martin were eventually con...

Changes over time

Post-Last.fm Investment

A mediocre investment in Last.fm creates a negative bias against the music industry, leading Index Ventures to pass on investing in Spotify multiple times [25].

Revolut Investment Period

Champions a controversial internal investment in Revolut, overcoming skepticism about its negative gross margins and US market resonance [20]. This success later creates a positive bias, causing him to pass on other fintechs like Qonto [11].

2016-2017

Observes the consolidation of the API management space with the acquisitions of Apigee and MuleSoft, framing the market context for companies like Kong [12].

Recent Period (AI Focus)

Articulates a detailed thesis on AI, noting the 99% drop in LLM token costs over 18 months [13], investing in Cohere and Mistral AI [14], and explaining the technical requirements for 'world models' as pursued by Fei-Fei Li's World Labs [29, 31].

Current

Actively promotes the EU Inc. initiative to unify corporate status across Europe, reflecting a focus on reducing structural barriers to growth for European companies [39].

Suggested prompts

How does Martin reconcile his critique of mega-funds with Index Ventures' own $1.5 billion growth fund, and where does he draw the line between appropriate scale and distracting 'asset gathering'? &nearr;Given Martin's acknowledgment of powerful investment biases (e.g., Last.fm/Spotify, Revolut/Qonto), what specific processes has Index Ventures implemented to mitigate these biases in their decision-making? &nearr;What are the potential conflicts between Martin's advocacy for 'tech sovereignty' in Europe and Index Ventures' 50/50 capital allocation between the US and Europe? &nearr;How does Martin's prediction of lower venture multiples for LLM providers impact his investment criteria and return expectations for portfolio companies like Cohere and Mistral AI? &nearr;

Key concepts

Index Ventures 2 ep Venture Capital Strategy 2 ep Revolut 1 ep Fintech 1 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 2 ep Large Language Models (LLMs) 1 ep Investment Bias 1 ep European Tech Ecosystem 1 ep Micromobility 1 ep API Management 1 ep

Notable quotes

“We had just invested in Last.fm, which was a totally reasonable outcome. We saw how the sausage gets made in that industry and the power of the labels. And we're like, gosh, this is impossible to make money... And that's why we passed multiple times.”

Martin · Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory

“beware of gross margin in the early days... you have a lot of businesses that in the early days have really bad gross margin... Snowflake was an example... All the LLM providers were very clear examples of that.”

Martin · Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory

“We invested $11.5 billion. We've returned close to 30, and we still have 20 plus in holdings.”

Martin · Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory

“One of the decisive factors in Revolut's success is the ability to passport across the European Union. And having a license in Lithuania that you can then export and serve the entire European Union without having to go market by market.”

Martin · Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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