Tom Lee

Market strategist and analyst with a focus on technical indicators, digital assets, and transformative technology sectors.

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Key positions and views

Pattern-Based Market Forecasting: Believes the stock market in 2026 will follow a specific pattern: a strong start, a significant mid-year drawdown that feels like a bear market, followed by a strong rally to end the year up at least 10%.

Bullish on Select Digital Assets: Views Ethereum as the future of finance and highlights the immense, underappreciated profitability of crypto-native companies like Tether.

Impending Tech IPOs as Economic Catalyst: Predicts that the public listings of OpenAI and a combined SpaceX/xAI entity will occur in the near future, with the SpaceX IPO in particular acting as a major positive wealth event for the U.S. economy.

Margin Debt as a Key Risk Indicator: Closely monitors the year-over-year growth in NYSE margin debt, identifying the 38% level as a critical threshold that historically signals negative forward returns for stocks.

Structural Labor Shortage Driving Robotics: Argues that a decade-long structural shortage of prime-age workers in the U.S. provides a powerful and lasting use case for investment in robotics and automation.

Podcast consensus on Lee

Points of consensus

▶Tom Lee is bullish on specific asset classes, viewing Ethereum as the future of finance, citing gold price targets as high as $9,000, and seeing a strong use case for robotics due to structural labor shortages.Apr 2026

▶He believes in the market's general resilience, suggesting that declines not caused by economic downturns typically result in V-shaped recoveries and that the current market broadening confirms a bull market.Apr 2026

▶Lee relies on historical data to support a positive market outlook, such as the rule that a positive first week and first month of the year gives a 92% probability of an up year.Apr 2026

▶He identifies major wealth creation events on the horizon, particularly the anticipated IPOs of SpaceX/xAI and OpenAI, which he believes will have a significant positive impact on the U.S. economy.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Lee presents conflicting market signals, forecasting a 10%+ gain for the stock market in 2026 while simultaneously warning that NYSE margin debt growth is approaching a level that historically signals negative returns.Apr 2026

▶He highlights both the promise and peril of cryptocurrency, championing Ethereum and a more favorable U.S. regulatory stance while also cautioning that one-third of Bitcoin wallets are vulnerable to quantum computing hacks.Apr 2026

▶Lee's outlook on the tech sector is nuanced; he identifies AI as a major winning theme for the U.S. and China but also notes the market's perception that AI could disrupt and devalue traditional software companies.Apr 2026

▶His 2026 forecast combines a bullish annual outcome with a severe bearish interlude, predicting a drawdown that 'feels like a bear market' within a year that ultimately finishes with strong gains.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Market Cycle & Technical AnalysisApr 2026

Lee heavily relies on historical data and technical indicators to forecast market behavior. He uses metrics like NYSE margin debt growth and the 'first week, first month' rule to predict future returns and volatility patterns, such as his 2026 forecast of a strong start, a mid-year drawdown, and a strong finish.

Investors following Lee's analysis should be prepared for significant intra-year volatility and should pay close attention to specific technical thresholds he identifies as potential turning points.

▶Digital Asset Evolution & Risk

Lee presents a sophisticated view of the crypto space, highlighting both its immense potential and significant risks. He sees Ethereum as the future of finance and points to the massive profitability of companies like Tether, while also warning of major vulnerabilities like quantum computing's threat to Bitcoin wallets and recalling massive historical deleveraging events.

Lee's perspective suggests that the digital asset class is maturing with institutional-level players and regulatory goals, but that tail risks and technological vulnerabilities remain critical considerations for investors.

▶Transformative Technology & Wealth EffectsApr 2026

Lee identifies AI and space exploration as key drivers of future economic activity and market performance. He predicts the US and China will dominate AI and anticipates major IPOs from OpenAI and a combined SpaceX/xAI, with the SpaceX IPO in particular creating a 'massive wealth effect' for the US economy.

This theme indicates a focus on high-growth, venture-style opportunities entering the public markets, suggesting that macroeconomic impacts from these specific corporate events could be as significant as traditional economic indicators.

▶Macroeconomic & Structural ShiftsApr 2026

Lee analyzes underlying structural changes in the economy, such as a decade-long shortage of prime-age workers in the U.S., which he believes creates a strong case for robotics. He also connects asset price targets, like gold reaching $9,000, to potential allocation shifts from high-net-worth individuals, linking macro trends to specific investment theses.

Lee's analysis goes beyond typical market commentary to identify long-term demographic and capital flow trends that could create durable investment opportunities independent of short-term market cycles.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

July 2023

NYSE margin debt stood at $710 billion, marking a low point before a significant increase over the following years.

October (year unspecified)

Lee references a major deleveraging event in the crypto market, which he describes as the largest in history, liquidating over two million accounts and wiping out one-third of all market makers.

November 2025

NYSE margin debt is reported to have increased to $1.214 trillion.

Early 2026

Lee notes that year-over-year growth in NYSE margin debt is at 36%, approaching the 38% level he identifies as a historical warning sign for negative forward stock returns.

2026 (Forecast)

Lee predicts a volatile year for the stock market, with a strong start, a mid-year drawdown resembling a bear market, and a rally to finish the year with at least a 10% gain. He also expects OpenAI and SpaceX/xAI to go public.

Suggested prompts

How does Tom Lee reconcile his forecast for a 10%+ market gain in 2026 with his simultaneous warning about NYSE margin debt approaching a historically negative threshold? &nearr;What are the specific mechanisms through which Tom Lee believes the SpaceX IPO will create a 'massive wealth effect' for the broader U.S. economy? &nearr;Given Lee's claim that a third of Bitcoin wallets are vulnerable to quantum computing, what does he see as the primary investment case for crypto assets like Ethereum over Bitcoin? &nearr;How does Lee's view on the structural shortage of prime-age workers inform his investment thesis in sectors beyond robotics? &nearr;

Key concepts

Stock Market Forecasting 2 ep Cryptocurrency Analysis 2 ep NYSE Margin Debt 1 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 1 ep Gold 1 ep Corporate Valuations 1 ep Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) 1 ep Macroeconomic Trends 1 ep Ethereum 2 ep Bitcoin 1 ep

Notable quotes

“Well we just think 2026 will look like last year So our base cases we are strong in the first part of the year Okay But then we have a drawdown that feels like a bear market... But we'll rally strongly. And I think at least a 10% gain, maybe more now.”

Tom Lee · What Tom Lee's Worried About in 2026 | TCAF 227

“about a third of bitcoin wallets are not upgradable so they're actually quantum vulnerable”

Tom Lee · What Tom Lee's Worried About in 2026 | TCAF 227

“it was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto bigger than what happened with ftx... it liquidated over two million accounts globally um it wiped out i think a third of all market makers”

Tom Lee · What Tom Lee's Worried About in 2026 | TCAF 227

“now it'll be public and then now it looks like spacex plus xai will will be public this year”

Tom Lee · What Tom Lee's Worried About in 2026 | TCAF 227

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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