Keep pulling the thread on Brent Johnson.
The FOMC's dot plot, under new chair Kevin Warsh, indicates a rate hike is more probable than a rate cut for the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the conflict with Iran.
Following news of a peace deal with Iran, crude oil prices collapsed from approximately $90 per barrel to $73 per barrel, a decline of nearly 20%.
Brent Johnson believes the kinetic military conflict between the US and Iran is paused but not permanently over, and he expects it to resume within weeks or months.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to traffic for three months due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent Johnson predicts the full economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure will not be realized for another 3 to 9 months, likely in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
The US version of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran includes a provision for a $300 billion payment to Iran, to be funded by other parties.
Israel's official position is that the conflict with Iran is not over until all weapons-grade uranium is physically removed from Iranian territory.
Both the US and Iranian versions of the Memorandum of Understanding stipulate that Iran's weapons-grade uranium will be downblended on-site rather than physically removed from the country.
Israel has publicly stated that it does not agree to the ceasefire terms involving Lebanon in the US-Iran MOU and does not consider them binding.
According to Eric Townsend, both the US and Iranian versions of their MOU state that after 60 days, Iran will charge a service fee of $1 per barrel for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent Johnson claims the recent conflict demonstrated that Russia and China will not militarily intervene to defend their ally, Iran.