Keep pulling the thread on Nate Silver.
Nate Silver predicts that Democrats have an 85% to 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
Nate Silver assesses that Democrats have a 40% to 45% chance of winning the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.
Nate Silver stated there is 'no evidence of fraud' in the recent California elections, attributing the late shift in vote counts for Nithya Raman to systematic differences in when and how different partisan groups cast their ballots.
Nate Silver described California's vote-counting system as 'completely unacceptable' and slow, contrasting it with India, which he notes counts its votes within 24 hours despite greater logistical challenges.
Nate Silver predicts that Democrats are slight favorites to win the US presidential election in 2028.
The duration of the ongoing conflict in Iran is a key variable that will likely determine US gas prices, which in turn could significantly impact the outcome of the midterm elections.
Gavin Newsom's standing in Democratic primary polls for the 2028 presidential election has fallen from approximately 25% to 15%, and his odds on Polymarket have dropped from 33% to 22%.
Nate Silver suggests that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who will be 36 years old, should not be discounted as a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, representing an 'I'm sick and tired' outsider vote.