Keep pulling the thread on Aaron Brown.
A National Transportation Safety Board study falsely claimed that curbside bus services had a fatal accident rate 7 times higher than traditional carriers by misattributing accidents from companies like Greyhound and Peter Pan to the curbside category.
Following a disputed NTSB safety study, the Fung Wah bus service and 29 other immigrant-owned curbside carriers were shut down, after which Greyhound and Peter Pan launched their own curbside service, Bolt Bus.
Aaron Brown asserts that most published research findings are false because academic fields rely on flawed statistical practices, such as using a 5% p-value threshold while ignoring prior probabilities and the statistical power of tests.
Aaron Brown predicts that many existing financial research results will be overturned as AI is used to more thoroughly clean and analyze historical data sets, resolving anomalies that were previously discarded.
In 2019, Duke University paid a $112 million settlement in a whistleblower lawsuit concerning the use of falsified data in medical research.
A study by Duke University researchers, which claimed universal eviction moratoriums would have cut COVID-19 mortality by 40%, was cited in the Congressional Record and court cases to support the policy.
Aaron Brown believes AI is "enormously good" for financial risk management because it can solve the attention allocation problem by simultaneously monitoring broad market data for anomalies and performing deep analysis on specific emerging risks.
During the August 2007 "quant quake," popular and publicly known quantitative strategies were "completely destroyed," while proprietary strategies remained largely unscathed.
Aaron Brown argues that the main value of prediction markets for retail participants is not financial gain, but rather purchasing information about whether their personal judgment is better or worse than the collective "wisdom of crowds."
Ross Stevens, founder of Stone Ridge, found in his research that the long shot premium in horse racing offers progressively worse odds throughout the day, becoming asymmetrically worse on the last bet of the day.
Aaron Brown's "dark horse theory" posits that consistent profits in horse racing can be made by identifying and betting on 8-to-1 or 10-to-1 longshots that should actually be priced at 5-to-1 or 6-to-1.
Aaron Brown's theory of risk management posits that a central risk manager should focus on Kelly betting for the overall portfolio, which frees up individual line traders to act as risk-neutral expected value maximizers.