Keep pulling the thread on Dr. Peter Linneman.
Dr. Peter Linneman believes the current pace of investment in AI represents four years of necessary investment being made in just two years, creating a misallocation of capital.
Dr. Peter Linneman predicts that over-investment and capital misallocation in AI will cause the economy to slow over the next couple of years.
Dr. Peter Linneman forecasts US GDP growth of 1.5% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027, and 1.8% for 2028.
Dr. Peter Linneman predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.
When excluding volatile fuel prices and owner equivalent rent, the US year-over-year inflation rate is 2.3% and has been stable at that level for 2.5 years.
New construction starts in the multifamily real estate sector have declined by 40% to 60%, with some markets seeing a 70% drop.
In 2026 and 2027, total new office construction in the US is predicted to be less than 10 million square feet combined, compared to a typical annual build of 50 to 60 million square feet.
China has reduced its oil consumption by 4 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are expected to take direct or cooperative action to prevent Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukraine is launching 10,000 drones per day as part of its military strategy against Russia, particularly targeting power infrastructure in Crimea.
There is a geopolitical risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch an incursion into Estonia or Latvia to secure a military victory, which would directly challenge the NATO alliance.
High-wealth families are reportedly keeping capital liquid to secure large allocations in anticipated IPOs for companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, rather than investing in real estate.