Keep pulling the thread on United States.
A material deficit in US natural gas storage is projected to begin in mid-2028, with storage levels falling below historical precedent.
By 2029, US natural gas storage levels are forecast to drop below all known historical records.
The United States is scheduled to increase its LNG export capacity to 35 Bcf/day by the end of 2030.
The US has the capacity to add approximately 20 BCF per day of new natural gas production from existing basins.
The base case (P50) forecast for incremental natural gas demand from AI compute is approximately 5 BCF per day.
In an extreme scenario, incremental natural gas demand from AI compute could reach 12 to 15 BCF per day by the early 2030s.
The United States is projected to supply approximately one-third of the global natural gas market within several years.
Expand Energy is positioned to be a major beneficiary of a natural gas shortage as it controls approximately 70% of the remaining core wells in the Haynesville shale.
Large-scale nuclear plants, specifically Westinghouse AP1000 units, are the only viable long-term solution to the projected US power deficit.
New large-scale nuclear power plants need to be operational by 2033 or 2034 to address the projected power deficit.
Bloom Energy is unlikely to secure sufficient natural gas to support its fuel cell manufacturing target of 2 gigawatts or more per year.
Energy costs could rise from 10% to 20-30% of a hyperscaler's total cost of compute by 2029.