Keep pulling the thread on Leopold Aschenbrenner.
American leadership is the only realistic path to developing a nonproliferation regime for superintelligence to avert global self-destruction.
The application of superintelligence to military research and development is expected to compress a century's worth of technological advances into less than a decade.
A lead of just one to three years in superintelligence could provide a decisive military advantage comparable to what the US-led coalition had against Iraq in the Gulf War.
Nations leading in superintelligence could plausibly achieve economic growth rates in the tens of percent per year, with their GDPs surpassing trailing nations within a decade.
The military advantage from superintelligence will likely be sufficient to preemptively disable an adversary's nuclear deterrent.
Superintelligence could enable the development of advanced bioweapons, using AlphaFold-style simulations, capable of targeting specific ethnic groups such as the Han Chinese.
China has demonstrated the ability to manufacture 7nm chips, a process node sufficient for producing high-performance AI chips comparable to the NVIDIA A100.
The Huawei Ascend 910B chip, built on SMIC's 7nm process, is estimated to be only 2-3 times worse on a performance-per-dollar basis than an equivalent NVIDIA chip.
China is likely to out-build the United States in constructing the large-scale data centers required for AGI training due to its superior capacity for industrial mobilization.
The current state of security at American AI labs makes it trivial for China to infiltrate them and steal key algorithmic breakthroughs for AGI.
If security is not improved, China will be able to steal final AGI model weights directly, bypassing the need to train its own models.
Superintelligence could enable authoritarian regimes to achieve permanent rule by eliminating threats like coups or popular rebellions through AI-controlled police and military forces.