Physical and economic limits to compute scaling (energy, GPU production) will slow the pace of AI progress.
The 'intelligence is the bottleneck' view overlooks the immense challenges of real-world deployment, infrastructure, and capital build-out.
Current AI models still lack fundamental capabilities like long-horizon coherence and genuine autonomy, indicating a long road to AGI.
The political and social response to widespread automation is unpredictable and could hinder deployment.
Opportunities Identified
Automating all remote work represents a massive economic prize, even if it takes decades to achieve.
The vast increase in economic output from AI deployment will create enormous wealth, particularly for capital owners.
Countries that create regulatory and social environments conducive to AI deployment will likely gain a significant geopolitical and economic advantage.
Falling costs for AI capabilities (e.g., GPT-4 costs dropping 100x) will continue to unlock new applications and enterprise value.