Keep pulling the thread on Daniel Kokotajlo.
The discussion emphasizes that "AI 2040: Plan A" is a recommendation for a desired future, not a prediction of a likely one. This approach shifts the focus from forecasting outcomes to actively shaping them through deliberate action.
The scenario's success hinges on "decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments." This highlights the central role of international diplomacy and joint governance in managing the risks of advanced AI.
A key objective within the "Plan A" scenario is the intentional delay of superintelligence by a decade. This strategy of "buying time" is presented as a necessary measure to allow for the maturation of safety protocols and alignment research.
The project advocates for using detailed, comprehensive scenarios to explore potential AI futures, deliberately avoiding high-level abstractions like 'doom' or 'utopia'. The goal is to work through challenges step-by-step to create a plausible and grounded plan.
In the "AI 2040: Plan A" scenario by the AI Futures Project, decisive action by the US and Chinese governments delays the creation of superintelligence from a baseline of 2030 to 2040.