Keep pulling the thread on Niklas Östberg.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Delivery Hero's leadership believed there was a clear path for the company to reach a $100 billion valuation, which led them to avoid equity dilution when valued at $30 billion.
In late 2021, Delivery Hero shut down its operations in Germany and Japan in anticipation of a market downturn.
Delivery Hero sold its German home market in 2017 because leadership believed the market was not as large as it appeared and would be difficult to consolidate due to M&A regulations.
Contrary to his earlier belief, Niklas Östberg no longer considers the food delivery market to be a 'winner-take-all' market, citing examples like the US, UK, and France where two or three players are profitable.
Niklas Östberg predicts that quick commerce will account for more than 50% of Delivery Hero's business in the long term, eventually becoming larger than its food delivery segment.
Delivery Hero invested close to $200 million in the quick commerce company Gorillaz and lost most of that investment.
Delivery Hero acquired Talabat when it was processing 70,000 orders per month, and the business is now valued at around $10 billion.
Delivery Hero's acquisition of Glovo was an all-stock deal that resulted in a dilution of approximately 5-6% for Delivery Hero shareholders.
Niklas Östberg believes the largest beneficiaries of Generative AI will be the average companies that deploy the technology, rather than the 'Magnificent Seven' tech companies that are building it.
Delivery Hero's business in Thailand scaled from a few thousand orders per day to 400,000 orders per day in less than a year, but this growth was not sustainable.
Niklas Östberg believes Delivery Hero was definitely overvalued during its peak and is probably undervalued today.
In late 2021, Delivery Hero cut 100-200 million from its budget before the 2022 fiscal year began.