20VC with Harry Stebbings• Mar 12, 2025• 1:12:12Interview

Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race

From 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Niklas Östberg•Founder & CEO, Delivery Hero

Executive Summary

Delivery Hero's CEO reflects on the company's journey through the pandemic-era boom and subsequent market correction, acknowledging past overvaluation and current undervaluation.
The company's M&A strategy focuses on acquiring small, local leaders (e.g., PedidosYa, Talabat) and leveraging its global platform to scale them, with the conviction for these deals rooted in the high predictability of customer cohorts.
Leadership made proactive, contrarian decisions ahead of the 2022 downturn, including shutting down German and Japanese operations and cutting budgets, which helped navigate the challenging market.
The long-term vision for Delivery Hero is a significant shift towards quick commerce (groceries, retail), which is expected to comprise over 50% of the business, complemented by future efficiency gains from automation like drones and robotics.

9 quotes

Concerns Raised

Current public market undervaluation of the company and sector.
The risk of execution failure or falling behind on key trends, as seen in Colombia.
Potential for overconfidence during market peaks leading to poor capital allocation decisions.

Opportunities Identified

Massive growth potential in the multi-vertical quick commerce market.
Significant long-term efficiency gains through automation with robotics and drones.
The inherent stability and predictability of customer cohorts provide a strong foundation for future growth.
Continued value creation from scaling acquired assets like Glovo.

Key Themes

Navigating Market Volatility and Valuation

The CEO discusses the extreme market cycles, from the COVID-era belief in a $100B valuation to the subsequent crash. He candidly admits the company was overvalued at its peak and is likely undervalued today, highlighting the proactive cost-cutting measures taken in late 2021 in anticipation of the downturn.

This provides a CEO's perspective on managing a public company through extreme market sentiment swings, emphasizing the importance of proactive risk management over reacting to market pressures.

Data-Driven M&A and Scaling

Delivery Hero's growth has been fueled by a specific M&A playbook: acquiring small, promising local companies and applying a global scaling engine. The conviction behind acquisitions like Glovo is based on deep analysis of customer cohort data, which is seen as incredibly stable and predictable over time.

This theme highlights a successful, repeatable strategy for global expansion in platform businesses, demonstrating how predictable unit economics can justify high-growth investments and acquisitions.

The Inevitability of Quick Commerce

The conversation outlines a clear strategic vision where quick commerce (groceries, health, beauty) will become the dominant part of the business, projected to be over 50% of revenue long-term. This represents a fundamental expansion beyond the core restaurant delivery market.

This signals the next major growth frontier for on-demand delivery platforms, moving them into larger, more frequent retail categories and significantly expanding their total addressable market.

The Future of Delivery Automation

The CEO predicts that automation will play a significant role in the future of logistics. He forecasts that drones could handle up to 25% of deliveries within a decade, but believes ground-based robotics will be adopted faster and cover a larger portion of the business due to fewer regulatory and urban density challenges.

This provides a forward-looking view on how technology will reshape the unit economics and operational efficiency of the last-mile delivery industry.

Contrarian Leadership and Conviction

The discussion emphasizes a leadership style rooted in authenticity, resilience, and making contrarian bets based on internal conviction rather than external validation. Examples include investing heavily in proprietary logistics in 2015 and exiting the German market in 2017, both against prevailing wisdom at the time.

This underscores the principle that successful leadership in innovative, high-growth sectors often requires the courage to follow internal data and long-term beliefs, even when they conflict with short-term market sentiment.

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Topics

Food Delivery Quick Commerce M&A Strategy Platform Business Scaling Market Volatility Valuation Leadership Contrarian Decisions Customer Cohorts Unit Economics Logistics Automation Drones Robotics Delivery Hero Glovo

Processed Mar 29, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini