Delivery Hero's CEO reflects on the company's journey through the pandemic-era boom and subsequent market correction, acknowledging past overvaluation and current undervaluation.
The company's M&A strategy focuses on acquiring small, local leaders (e.g., PedidosYa, Talabat) and leveraging its global platform to scale them, with the conviction for these deals rooted in the high predictability of customer cohorts.
Leadership made proactive, contrarian decisions ahead of the 2022 downturn, including shutting down German and Japanese operations and cutting budgets, which helped navigate the challenging market.
The long-term vision for Delivery Hero is a significant shift towards quick commerce (groceries, retail), which is expected to comprise over 50% of the business, complemented by future efficiency gains from automation like drones and robotics.
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Concerns Raised
Current public market undervaluation of the company and sector.
The risk of execution failure or falling behind on key trends, as seen in Colombia.
Potential for overconfidence during market peaks leading to poor capital allocation decisions.
Opportunities Identified
Massive growth potential in the multi-vertical quick commerce market.
Significant long-term efficiency gains through automation with robotics and drones.
The inherent stability and predictability of customer cohorts provide a strong foundation for future growth.
Continued value creation from scaling acquired assets like Glovo.