No Priors• Aug 28, 2025• 40mInterview

No Priors Ep. 129 | With U.S. Under Secretary of State (E) Designate Jacob Helberg

From No Priors

Jacob Helberg•U.S. Under Secretary of State (E) Designate for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment

Executive Summary

economy is undergoing a fundamental shift from consumption-driven to investment-driven, fueled by massive CapEx in AI infrastructure and energy, which could elevate GDP growth from a 1-3% band to 3-5%.
A new era of geopolitical competition is centered on controlling the foundational AI stack, from critical minerals and semiconductors to AI models, with the U.S.
and China in an aggressive race for dominance.
The energy demands of AI data centers and reshoring manufacturing are projected to require a doubling of the U.S.
electricity supply, positioning nuclear power as a critical strategic asset for achieving energy abundance.
The global economic landscape is reordering, with Europe's share of global GDP declining due to lagging tech adoption and restrictive regulation, while the Middle East is emerging as a tech-forward economic power.

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Concerns Raised

Extreme U.S. supply chain vulnerability, with 90% reliance on China for refined critical minerals and a dependency on Taiwan for semiconductors.
The massive, unmet energy demand required to power the AI boom, which could become a critical bottleneck for growth.
China's aggressive, state-backed strategy to dominate the global AI stack and export its technology to developing nations.
Europe's economic decline and self-inflicted regulatory hurdles (e.g., EU AI Act) could weaken a key traditional ally in the tech race.

Opportunities Identified

AI-driven productivity gains could shift U.S. GDP growth to a sustained higher band of 3-5%.
Reshoring manufacturing and securing supply chains can create a more resilient and robust domestic industrial base.
Achieving energy abundance through nuclear and other sources to power the next industrial revolution.
Forging new strategic and economic partnerships with rising, tech-forward regions like the Middle East.

Key Themes

The AI-Driven Economic Supercycle

AI is not just a technological shift but the engine of a new economic era in the U.S. Massive capital investment in AI infrastructure is already adding a full percentage point to GDP growth, driving a transition from a services-based to a high-investment, high-productivity economy.

This signifies a potential multi-decade boom in productivity and economic expansion, fundamentally altering investment theses and national economic strategy away from consumption and towards industrial capacity.

Geopolitical Competition for the AI Stack

The U.S. and China are locked in a systemic rivalry to control the entire supply chain of artificial intelligence, from mining rare earths to manufacturing semiconductors and deploying AI models. The speaker argues that China uses industrial policy and predatory pricing to create strategic dependencies, which the U.S. is now countering through reshoring and strategic partnerships.

Control over the AI supply chain is becoming the 21st-century equivalent of controlling oil reserves or trade routes, with profound implications for national security, economic independence, and global influence.

Energy Abundance as a Strategic Imperative

The explosive growth of AI data centers and the reshoring of manufacturing are causing the first increase in U.S. national energy demand since 2008. Projections indicate a need to double the nation's electricity supply, making the expansion of energy sources, particularly nuclear, a critical bottleneck and strategic priority for sustaining economic growth.

Without a massive and rapid expansion of its energy grid, the U.S. risks capping its own AI-driven growth potential. Energy policy is now inseparable from technology and industrial policy.

The Shifting Global Economic Order

A "second great divergence" is underway, where AI-first nations will leapfrog others. Europe's economic influence is collapsing (from 65% to 15% of global GDP) due to missing tech waves and restrictive policies like the EU AI Act, while the Middle East is unexpectedly surging as a tech-forward economic hub.

This global re-alignment challenges long-held assumptions about economic power, creating new opportunities for partnership with rising regions like the Middle East and highlighting the risks of regulatory overreach in technological innovation.

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Topics

AI Infrastructure Geopolitics US-China Relations Supply Chain Security Reshoring Manufacturing Energy Policy Nuclear Energy Data Centers Economic Growth GDP Productivity Capital Expenditure (CapEx)Critical Minerals Rare Earth Elements Semiconductors EU AI Act

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