Five Questions for Stephen Kotkin: Advice for the New Administration (and the Rest of Us)
From Uncommon Knowledge
Stephen Kotkin•Historian and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Executive Summary
The 2024 US election reflects a global trend of voter dissatisfaction with incumbents, presenting an opportunity for a significant political realignment if the new administration avoids overreach.
Resolving the costly stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war requires a new US strategy that moves beyond aid to apply direct, existential pressure on Putin's regime, potentially by engaging with nationalist Russian elites.
Iran's regime is internally fragile and despised by its populace, creating a strategic dilemma where a direct military strike on its near-complete nuclear program could backfire by rallying the people around the mullahs.
The primary driver of current global instability is not American overreach but an insufficiency of American power, necessitating a return to a more assertive, Reagan-esque foreign policy to deter adversaries and maintain order.
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Concerns Raised
Putin's regime will not negotiate an acceptable peace in Ukraine without direct, existential pressure from the US.
A direct military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could backfire by rallying the Iranian people around the hated regime.
The incoming Trump administration may misread its narrow electoral mandate and overreach, squandering the opportunity for a durable political realignment.
Insufficient American power and will is the primary driver of current global instability.
Opportunities Identified
Engage with Russian nationalist elites who are dismayed by Putin's actions to create internal pressure for regime change.
Leverage the internal illegitimacy of the Iranian regime to foster its collapse from within, resolving the nuclear threat long-term.
A new US administration has the potential to forge a lasting political realignment and national renewal, similar to the Reagan era.
The tech revolution is empowering interior states like Texas, Tennessee, and Florida, creating new centers of economic dynamism and renewal.