Keep pulling the thread on Justin Drake.
Justin Drake predicts Ethereum will be fully post-quantum secure by 2029.
The U.S. government is reportedly intervening in the publication of academic research on quantum computing, such as improvements to Shor's algorithm, for national security reasons.
Approximately 1,500 logical qubits are needed to break the ECDSA cryptography used in cryptocurrencies.
The upgrade to post-quantum cryptography for Ethereum is so invasive it will require an almost complete rewrite of the consensus layer, which is being bundled into the Lean Consensus project.
Justin Drake predicts Zcash will be a primary target for quantum attacks because its privacy features would allow an attacker to mint an arbitrary number of coins without immediate public detection.
The SNARKs used in Zcash are based on elliptic curves that are vulnerable to being broken by quantum computers.
Approximately 35% of all Bitcoin is held in addresses that are vulnerable to a quantum attack, according to data from Project 11's "Risk Lisk" dashboard.
Justin Drake estimates that between 5% and 15% of Bitcoin's supply, likely around 10-12%, is permanently lost and held in quantum-vulnerable addresses.
Michael Saylor is reportedly in favor of burning the quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin supply via a hard fork to protect the asset's value.
Naively implementing post-quantum signatures on Bitcoin without increasing block size would reduce its throughput by approximately 10x, from 3 TPS to 0.3 TPS.
Justin Drake predicts that the total amount of lost and quantum-vulnerable Ethereum supply is likely around 2%, an order of magnitude less than Bitcoin's.
Ethereum's path to post-quantum security requires upgrading three distinct, vulnerable cryptographic components: BLS signatures at the consensus layer, KZG commitments at the data layer, and ECDSA at the execution layer.