Keep pulling the thread on Jan Hatzius, Ben Snider.
Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.6% real GDP growth for the U.S. in 2026.
Goldman Sachs has a year-end 2026 target of 7600 for the S&P 500 index.
Goldman Sachs forecasts two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, likely in March and June, to bring the policy rate to a neutral estimate of 3-3.25%.
AI investment has contributed only about 20 basis points to measured U.S. GDP growth over the last 3-4 years and close to zero over the last year.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. unemployment will remain flat at 4% in 2026, despite strong GDP growth, due to accelerating productivity.
Underlying U.S. trend productivity growth has averaged approximately 2% in the five years since the COVID-19 pandemic, up from 1.5% in the prior cycle.
S&P 500 companies reported aggregate earnings growth of 12% in the third quarter of 2025.
Excluding mega-cap stocks, the median S&P 500 company reported earnings growth of approximately 10% in the third quarter of 2025.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for over 40% of the index's total market capitalization.
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 currently represent 40% of the index's market cap and one-third of its earnings.
A Goldman Sachs study of 100 years of U.S. market data found no historical precedent that matches the current level of market concentration.
Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs contributed approximately 50 basis points to core PCE inflation in 2025.