Global liquidity, driven by government debt cycles and currency debasement (8% annually), is the primary driver of all major asset classes, including crypto and tech stocks.
The US Treasury's extension of its debt maturity profile in 2022 has shifted the business cycle from a four-year to a roughly five-year cycle, delaying the expected market peak.
Consequently, the most aggressive phase of the crypto bull market (the "banana zone") is now projected for late 2026, not 2025, with significant liquidity injections from fiscal stimulus and regulatory changes expected beforehand.
The crypto asset class is on a secular adoption trend projected to reach a $100 trillion market capitalization by 2032-2034, representing the largest and fastest wealth creation event in history.
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Concerns Raised
The recent sluggish and choppy price action in crypto has caused investor frustration and doubt.
The business cycle has been subdued, delaying the expected "alt season" and broad market rally.
The timing of the liquidity peak has been delayed by a year, requiring more patience from investors than initially anticipated.
Opportunities Identified
The projected growth of the crypto market to $100 trillion represents a historic wealth creation event.
Upcoming liquidity injections from election-year stimulus and changes to bank leverage ratios (SLR) will fuel the next leg of the bull market.
The current divergence between Bitcoin's price and macro liquidity indicators presents a significant buying opportunity before an expected reversion.
The anticipated strengthening of the business cycle (ISM to 57) will trigger a powerful "alt season".