Prof G Conversations• Jan 8, 2026• 59:29Interview

The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

From Prof G Conversations

Ian Bremmer•President and Founder, Eurasia Group

Executive Summary

A potential second Trump administration is poised to enact a 'political revolution' by taking control of the administrative state (DOJ, FBI) to eliminate checks and balances and target political opponents.
foreign policy would shift to an aggressive, unilateral 'Donroe Doctrine,' asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere, as demonstrated by the hypothetical capture of Venezuela's Maduro and plans to acquire Greenland.
The administration would implement 'state capitalism with American characteristics,' using government power to direct corporate decisions through 'golden shares,' retroactive equity stakes, and forcing foreign investment.
is in a high-stakes technology race with China, particularly in AI and the 'electric stack,' with China gaining a strategic advantage in deployment and manufacturing while the U.S.
deploys untested AI into society.

12 quotes

Concerns Raised

The erosion of U.S. democratic institutions and checks and balances under a 'political revolution'.
Russia's escalating 'shadow war' against NATO members, increasing the risk of direct conflict.
The destabilizing impact of a unilateral and aggressive U.S. foreign policy ('Donroe Doctrine') on allies and regional security.
The societal disruption caused by the rapid, unregulated deployment of consumer-facing AI in the West.

Opportunities Identified

Other global powers, like India and the Gulf states, are stepping up to create regional stability as U.S. leadership becomes less reliable.
The profound crisis in the U.S. political system may serve as a necessary 'breaking point' that forces a fundamental realignment and reconstruction of institutions.

Key Themes

The 'Donroe Doctrine': A New Era of U.S. Unilateralism

The discussion outlines a new, aggressive U.S. foreign policy doctrine focused on asserting unilateral control over the Western Hemisphere. This is exemplified by the successful (hypothetical) military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro and a plan to acquire Greenland by bypassing its sovereign government, Denmark.

This doctrine signals a significant departure from traditional diplomacy, increasing the risk of regional instability, alienating key allies, and creating a highly unpredictable environment for international business and security.

Trump's Domestic 'Political Revolution'

A core objective of a second Trump term would be to gain political control over the U.S. administrative state, including the FBI and DOJ. This 'revolution' aims to dismantle institutional checks and balances to consolidate executive power and prevent political opposition from functioning effectively, as seen in the 'chilling' investigation into ActBlue.

This represents a fundamental threat to U.S. democratic institutions and the rule of law, creating significant domestic political risk and uncertainty about the future stability of the American political system.

State Capitalism with American Characteristics

The U.S. is moving towards a model where the government intervenes directly in the economy for political ends. This includes using 'golden shares' in companies like U.S. Steel, retroactively taking equity in firms like Intel, and demanding massive investments from allies like Japan as a condition for market access.

This shift blurs the lines between the private sector and state control, introducing extreme uncertainty for businesses, undermining free-market principles, and creating opportunities for cronyism and politically motivated economic decisions.

The U.S.-China Tech Cold War

The U.S. and China are locked in a strategic competition for technological dominance, particularly in AI and the 'electric stack' (energy, batteries, grids). While the U.S. currently has more advanced AI models, China has mastered the manufacturing and deployment stack and is implementing a more strategic, state-controlled approach to AI development and regulation.

The outcome of this race will determine global technological leadership, standards, and supply chains for decades, with profound implications for economic competitiveness and national security.

Eroding Alliances and Russian Asymmetric Warfare

U.S. alliances are weakening as the Trump administration treats partners transactionally, while centrist European governments are losing power. Simultaneously, Russia is escalating a 'shadow war' against frontline NATO states through cyber attacks, infrastructure sabotage, and assassination attempts, prompting these nations to consider offensive countermeasures.

This dual pressure of a less reliable U.S. and a more aggressive Russia significantly increases the risk of a direct conflict in Europe and threatens the cohesion of the entire NATO alliance.

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Topics

Geopolitics US Politics Donald Trump Foreign Policy Donroe Doctrine Venezuela Nicolas Maduro Greenland US-China Relations AI Tech Competition State Capitalism Industrial Policy Russia-Ukraine War NATO European Security Asymmetric Warfare Taiwan US Alliances

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