Trump's attack on Iran betrays a core non-interventionist promise, potentially fracturing his political coalition.
The conflict with Iran could trigger a severe economic shock via high oil prices and inflation, undermining a key pillar of his support.
Trump's personal enrichment and transactional governing style contradict the populist, anti-elite narrative of his movement.
The 'MAGA' political identity may be shrinking, limiting Trump's ability to deviate from his base's expectations without consequence.
Opportunities Identified
A hypothetical revival of Trumpism could be driven by the successful implementation of a protectionist economic policy that delivers tangible wage growth for lower-income workers.
Trump's core base remains highly loyal, providing a durable floor of support regardless of his policy decisions.