In Good Company• Nov 26, 2025• 1:09:49Interview

Greg Jensen - Co-CIO of Bridgewater | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

From In Good Company

Greg Jensen•Co-CIO, Bridgewater

Executive Summary

The global economy is undergoing a fundamental shift towards "modern mercantilism," driven by US-China competition, which alters the rules for international trade and investment.
The AI revolution has entered a "resource grab" phase, with intense competition for scarce resources like power, chips (NVIDIA), and top-tier scientific talent, creating new bottlenecks and investment opportunities.
Capital is dangerously over-concentrated in US equities and illiquid assets, a trend from the last 15 years that now represents a significant risk, necessitating a move towards global diversification.
A new competition for capital is emerging between massive government fiscal spending and the capital-intensive needs of the AI build-out, which is likely to keep real rates elevated and pressure bond markets.

11 quotes

Concerns Raised

Over-concentration of capital in US equities creates a fragile market setup.
The shift to mercantilism introduces significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
A persistent US inflation baseline of around 3% will challenge traditional asset allocation models.
Intense competition for capital between governments and the AI sector could drive real rates higher.
A sharp decline in global public support for the United States could have long-term economic consequences.

Opportunities Identified

Investing in the core infrastructure of the AI revolution, such as companies controlling power and chips.
Global diversification away from the US-centric consensus, including undervalued European and Chinese equities.
Utilizing AI and machine learning to develop more sophisticated, alpha-generating investment strategies.
Bitcoin as a potential store of value for moving capital in a world with declining trust in governments.

Key Themes

The Rise of Modern Mercantilism

The global economic order is moving away from the neoliberal consensus towards a mercantilist framework. This is characterized by protectionist policies, government intervention to bolster domestic industry, and viewing trade as a zero-sum game, largely in response to China's rise.

This structural shift invalidates many investment assumptions from the past 40 years, requiring investors to account for increased geopolitical risk, supply chain reconfiguration, and country-specific industrial policies.

The AI Resource War

The current phase of AI development is defined by a fierce competition for finite physical and human resources. This includes a land grab for access to power grids (led by Microsoft), a multi-year backlog for NVIDIA's chips, and a battle for the world's ~1,000 elite AI scientists.

This creates a highly constrained environment where companies controlling these key inputs gain immense strategic power, and it signals that the primary investment opportunities are shifting towards the core infrastructure of AI.

Capital Concentration and the Diversification Imperative

Global capital has become more concentrated in US equities and illiquid assets than ever before, a strategy that has worked for 15 years but is now described as a 'trap'. Under the surface, US equities have begun to underperform the rest of the world, signaling a potential reversal.

Investors are likely overexposed to a single market facing significant political and economic changes. This environment demands a deliberate strategy of global diversification, including into European and select Chinese assets, to mitigate risk.

The Future of Investing: The 'Artificial Investor'

Leading hedge funds like Bridgewater are actively building and deploying AI-driven investment systems. After a decade-long journey, Bridgewater's 'artificial investor' is now considered capable of generating alpha and is being used with client capital, representing a major shift from human-led expert systems to machine-led reasoning.

This signifies a new frontier in asset management where AI is not just a tool for analysis but a core engine for intuition and decision-making, potentially creating a significant performance gap between firms that successfully adapt and those that don't.

China's Strategic AI Pivot

China's leadership has recognized that competing with the US in AI is an existential necessity. To achieve this, they are reversing their crackdown on the private sector, understanding that a functional and well-funded private market is essential to foster the innovation required to keep pace.

This policy shift could reinvigorate China's tech sector and equity markets, creating new, albeit politically sensitive, investment opportunities for global investors looking for growth outside the US.

Get started free

Topics

AI Investment Artificial Intelligence Bridgewater Associates Geopolitics Modern Mercantilism US-China Relations Capital Concentration Global Diversification Inflation NVIDIA Microsoft Anthropic OpenAI Fiscal Policy Hedge Funds Macroeconomics Talent Acquisition

Processed Apr 5, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini