The West is exhibiting a shift toward a protectionist 'Spartan mentality' in response to recent global crises.
The United States is growing weary of its role as the protector of the global rules-based order.
A decline in intellectual pluralism and the rise of orthodoxies on both the political left and right are stifling innovation.
The erosion of institutional integrity, such as the independence of the judiciary and media, signals a late-stage decline.
Western self-confidence has been significantly damaged by the 2008 financial crisis and the concurrent economic rise of China.
Opportunities Identified
By recognizing the historical patterns of decline, societies can consciously choose to recommit to openness and reverse the trend.
Other nations (e.g., in Europe and East Asia) could step up to share the burden of maintaining the rules-based world order.
The rise of new centers of innovation in Asia and Latin America can be a net positive for global progress if the West remains open to their contributions.