In Good Company• Jun 18, 2025• 47:23Interview

Børge Brende | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

From In Good Company

Børge Brende•President and CEO, World Economic Forum

Executive Summary

The global order is shifting from a post-Cold War 'win-win' paradigm to a more competitive, fragmented, and multipolar environment, though a full economic decoupling is unlikely.
Despite significant headwinds like record-high global debt and slower trend growth (down from 4% to 3%), the global economy remains surprisingly resilient, with new technologies poised to be the primary driver of future productivity.
Generative AI and other emerging technologies are identified as a paradigm-shifting force capable of boosting productivity by up to 10% in the next decade, creating a new, more sustainable form of economic growth.
In a polarized world, public-private cooperation on areas of shared interest, such as combating the $4-5 trillion annual cost of cybercrime, remains a viable path for progress and a key focus for the World Economic Forum.

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Concerns Raised

Increasing geopolitical fragmentation and a shift from cooperation to competition.
Record-high global debt since 1945, limiting the fiscal capacity of nations to respond to crises.
Slowing global trend growth, which has fallen from nearly 4% to closer to 3%.
The trend of shorter tenures for political and corporate leaders, encouraging short-term thinking.

Opportunities Identified

New technologies, especially AI, could significantly boost productivity and drive sustainable economic growth.
Finding common ground on transnational issues like cybercrime offers a path for cooperation between rivals like the US and China.
Surprising economic resilience and growth in specific regions, such as the US, Spain, and Greece.
China's economic pivot towards services and digital trade presents new market opportunities.

Key Themes

Geopolitical Fragmentation and the New World Order

The world is transitioning from a unipolar, cooperative era to a multipolar, competitive one characterized by a shift from soft to hard power. While this increases fragmentation, the speaker believes a complete economic decoupling between major powers like the US and China is improbable, predicting instead a 'securing' of global value chains.

This shift fundamentally alters strategic calculations for businesses and governments, requiring a greater focus on supply chain resilience, geopolitical risk management, and navigating a more transactional international landscape.

Technology as the Engine of Future Growth

Emerging technologies, particularly generative AI, are positioned as the primary driver of future economic growth and productivity, potentially increasing productivity by 10% over the next decade. This new form of growth is seen as more sustainable and capable of offsetting the negative impacts of geopolitical tensions and slower trade growth.

The nation or bloc that achieves leadership in AI and other key technologies will likely become the most powerful global player, making technological competition a central theater of geopolitical rivalry and a critical investment area for corporations.

Economic Resilience Amidst Structural Headwinds

The global economy faces significant challenges, including the highest global debt levels since 1945, which constrains fiscal policy, and a decline in trend growth from 4% to 3%. However, it has proven surprisingly resilient, with bright spots like the US economy and fast-growing European nations like Spain and Greece.

Investors and policymakers must balance cautiousness due to structural risks with optimism about technological drivers. This environment favors agile strategies that can adapt to both potential downturns and unexpected pockets of growth.

The Evolving Role of Global Leadership

The speaker notes a trend of shorter tenures for both corporate CEOs (3-4 years) and political leaders, which fosters short-term thinking. In this context, building trust and facilitating long-term progress becomes more challenging, reinforcing the need for platforms like the World Economic Forum to create continuity and foster multi-stakeholder dialogue.

This leadership churn increases institutional risk and places a premium on building robust, resilient organizations and systems that are not solely dependent on individual relationships. It also highlights the value of neutral platforms for building consensus.

Public-Private Cooperation in a Polarized World

Despite growing nationalism, there remain areas of overlapping interest where public-private cooperation can yield progress. The speaker highlights combating cybercrime, preparing for future pandemics, and addressing climate change as key areas where collaboration between governments and businesses is essential and possible.

For global challenges that transcend borders, purely national or governmental solutions are insufficient. Businesses have a critical role to play in partnering with public institutions to develop and implement effective, scalable solutions.

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Topics

Geopolitics Global Economy World Economic Forum Davos Artificial Intelligence Generative AI Productivity Growth US-China Relations Cybercrime Global Debt Economic Decoupling Supply Chain Resilience European Economy Leadership Public-Private Partnership

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