Keep pulling the thread on Kenneth Rogoff.
Kenneth Rogoff predicts that within a year, the US will have tariffs on Europe on the order of 15% to 20%, and Europe will have retaliated.
Kenneth Rogoff believes the odds of a US recession have sharply increased, driven not by traditional economic shocks but by a politically-driven loss of confidence among consumers who did not vote for Donald Trump.
Kenneth Rogoff argues that the US dollar's dominance in the global economy reached its peak approximately 10 years ago and has been gradually declining since.
China's efforts to de-dollarize are significantly motivated by observing US sanctions on Russia and the desire to insulate itself from similar measures in a potential conflict over Taiwan.
Kenneth Rogoff believes China's actual GDP growth is likely 2% or 3%, not the officially reported 5%, and this slowdown has major negative implications for global energy and commodity exporters.
China is currently experiencing a 'Japanification' of its economy, characterized by deflation, slow growth, and a housing crisis, which will likely take several more years to resolve.
Kenneth Rogoff predicts another major burst of inflation, similar to the post-pandemic surge, will occur within the next five to seven years, and possibly sooner under a Trump presidency.
The current trajectory of US government debt is unsustainable and will ultimately be resolved through a period of high inflation.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that US government debt will increase from its current level of $36 trillion to $65 trillion within 10 years.
The United States military does not have the capacity to project power and defend Europe, the Middle East, and Asia simultaneously.
Europe will need to increase its defense spending significantly beyond the 2% of GDP target to compensate for decades of underinvestment.
US interest payments on national debt have risen from $250 billion to nearly $1 trillion over a short period.