Keep pulling the thread on Dylan Patel.
NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel as part of a collaboration to jointly develop custom data centers and PC products.
Intel has also received a $2 billion investment from SoftBank and a $10 billion investment from the US government.
The partnership between NVIDIA and Intel is considered extremely negative for AMD, which was already struggling with its software stack and market traction.
The Chinese government has banned domestic companies from purchasing NVIDIA's specialized chips produced for the Chinese market.
Huawei was able to acquire approximately 2.9 to 3 million chips from TSMC through shell companies, circumventing US sanctions.
Dylan Patel estimates that NVIDIA's potential revenue in China for the H20 GPU was over $20 billion before the product was banned.
US export controls on semiconductor equipment to China effectively ban technology for 5-nanometer processes and below, despite official statements citing a 14-nanometer threshold.
Huawei's next-generation AI chip roadmap includes two distinct designs: one optimized for recommendation systems and pre-fill, and another for decode.
Huawei's next-generation AI chip roadmap includes the development of custom High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a capability that NVIDIA and AMD are only starting to adopt next year.
Dylan Patel's analysis projects that the top six hyperscalers (Microsoft, CoreWeave, Amazon, Google, Oracle, Meta) will spend between $450 billion and $500 billion on capex next year.
OpenAI has signed a deal with Oracle for over $300 billion in compute capacity.
OpenAI's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) hit $20 billion in the current year, with some market estimates projecting it to reach $35-45 billion by the end of next year.