Keep pulling the thread on James Aitken, Marko Papic & Louis-Vincent Gave.
The Trump administration is actively signaling to global capital that it is not welcome in the United States.
The 15-year period of U.S. economic and market exceptionalism is coming to an end.
The private sector lacks sufficient balance sheet capacity to intermediate the enormous current stock of U.S. Treasury securities.
A massive wave of U.S. corporate debt, issued in 2020-2021 and largely used for stock buybacks, is due for rollover in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025.
There is a significant risk of a global margin call due to hidden leverage from trillions of dollars worth of structured products sold by private banks to wealthy clients over the past decade.
For the past 6-7 years, China's economic policy has directed capital towards industry to build resilience against U.S. tech and semiconductor restrictions, while discouraging lending to real estate and consumers.
Over the past 6-9 months, China has enacted a major policy shift to promote domestic consumption, moving away from its prior focus on industrial investment.
The global fiscal landscape has inverted, with the U.S. now pursuing fiscal consolidation while China and Europe are increasing fiscal stimulus.
The Trump administration is reportedly planning a "traffic light" system to categorize foreign investors, giving preferential treatment to allies.
A statement by Stephen Mirren at the Hudson Institute suggesting foreign entities wire money directly to the Treasury is being interpreted by investors as a precursor to taxing capital flows.
Global economic growth is expected to be "horrible" for the next two quarters, which will force the market price of U.S. equities lower.
Louis Gav predicts the ultimate U.S.-China negotiation will be a sphere-of-influence deal where China exits the Americas in exchange for the U.S. exiting Asia.