Investing too early in an S-curve before barriers to adoption are removed (e.g., early EVs, VR/AR).
Companies in high-growth markets that lack a durable competitive advantage are likely to fail.
The difficulty of picking winners at the application and foundational model layers of AI, which resembles the early, fragmented internet search market.
Opportunities Identified
The AI infrastructure layer, which is seen as only 14% penetrated and set for continued massive growth.
The application of AI by incumbents like Meta and Google to dramatically improve their core businesses, such as ad targeting.
Cloud computing, which has a larger total addressable market ($600B) than initially estimated and a long growth runway.
Stablecoins, which are viewed as a "true S-curve" for efficient money transfer, in contrast to the broader crypto market.