Keep pulling the thread on Ian Charles.
The top 700 private equity firms, classified as Level 7 to Level 10, control 90% of the capital in the asset class.
The six largest private banking and wirehouse platforms committed approximately $110 billion to private equity funds last year, double the $55 billion committed by the six largest LPs in North America.
The six "Level 10" private equity firms have raised $250 billion in the last 12 months from their controlled insurance companies and proprietary wealth channels.
Ian Charles predicts a "maturity wall" and a "reckoning" for many private equity firms in 2025 and 2026.
The current distribution yield for private equity is in the bottom quintile historically, comparable to the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis.
The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the private equity asset class has tripled in the last five years.
Cogent Partners estimates that between 15% and 20% of all private equity exit activity in the last two years has come from "inorganic" sources like continuation vehicles and NAV loans.
According to Cogent Partners' models, private equity is currently overvalued by approximately 10% relative to public equity, an improvement from being 40% overvalued in 2022.
Ian Charles co-founded Cogent Partners, which he describes as the first intermediary firm established to help limited partners sell their stakes in the secondary market.
According to Cogent Partners' Q1 2024 analysis, a top narrative among General Partners is the potential impact of the upcoming election on M&A activity and market sentiment.
Consolidation and M&A among private equity managers was a dominant theme for General Partners in Q1 2024.
Cogent Partners uses large language models to analyze public data, analyst calls, and articles to measure sentiment and identify key themes in the private equity industry.