Keep pulling the thread on Ben Hunt.
Following the 2009 market recovery, the Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke began to explicitly use forward guidance and coordinated communication as a primary policy tool to influence market behavior.
U.S. Treasuries are no longer considered a safe haven asset by foreign entities.
The volume of media stories expressing concern about alternative asset managers' exposure to private credit is higher than at any point in the last 10 years, including during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ben Hunt believes the growing narrative of concern around private credit has legs and will not be easily dismissed by assurances from financial leaders.
Perscient rebuilt its software using modern LLMs as an operating system, resulting in a greater than 100x improvement in signal detection compared to its previous handcrafted small language models.
By analyzing domestic Chinese media in November, Perscient detected that demand for luxury goods in China had significantly declined, months before it was reported by companies like LVMH in February.
Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, analysis of domestic Russian media indicated that Russia was mobilizing public opinion for a major conflict, not a limited incursion.
Ben Hunt predicts the United States is politically heading towards "trench warfare" and greater "narrative violence," which historically leads to negative outcomes like civil unrest.
Foreign entities, including central banks, are making a clear effort to repatriate assets and funds away from the United States.
In his valedictory address, Ben Bernanke stated that the Federal Reserve's communication policy was a more effective toolkit than later rounds of quantitative easing like QE2 and QE3.
The strategic shift towards a more communicative Federal Reserve, including a common calendar for governors' speeches, was a concerted effort led by Janet Yellen during her time as vice chair.
The practice of using narrative as a primary policy tool has been adopted by CEOs, who now focus on storytelling to achieve a higher valuation multiple for their companies.