Moore expresses high conviction that the U.S. economy will slow significantly in H2 2025 and early 2026, with growth falling to sub-2% or even sub-1.5%. This is driven by policy uncertainty from tariffs, which she believes will cause companies to deprioritize expansionary capital expenditures.
Moore forcefully argues against relying on historical valuation metrics like the Shiller CAPE ratio for mean reversion. She contends that the modern market, dominated by capital-light, high-cash-flow businesses, is structurally different from past eras, making historical comparisons lazy and misleading.
Moore identifies the wealth management sector as a consistent growth area, citing the vast wealth created post-GFC and the coming intergenerational transfer. She predicts the space will be transformed by the increasing availability of liquid alternative investment vehicles, which will democratize access to diversification beyond traditional stocks and bonds.
While not believing in full "de-globalization," Moore sees ongoing separation between the U.S. and China. She argues the market is past "peak tariff shock" but "nowhere close to peak tariff pain," with persistent sectoral tariffs having a more damaging long-term impact on corporate behavior and supply chains than broad-based ones.
Moore views AI tools as a significant productivity enhancer, making her a "100 times more informed" and faster investor by providing real-time data and context. She counters concerns about AI replacing junior talent by stressing the need for a broad, interdisciplinary education to learn how to ask the right questions and use the tools effectively.
Keep pulling the thread on Kate Moore.