Keep pulling the thread on Tom Barkin.
The United States has experienced a generational-level underbuilding of housing since the Great Recession.
The combined fiscal stimulus from programs like the CARES Acts and the infrastructure bill during the COVID-19 pandemic totaled approximately $4 trillion or more.
Tom Barkin assesses the U.S. economy as being in the final stages of returning to normal, with unemployment at a historically low 4.2%.
Headline inflation is currently at 2.3%, which is very close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Adjusted for one-time factors in the first quarter, U.S. GDP is growing at a rate of approximately 2.5%.
Tom Barkin characterizes the current 4.3% overnight federal funds rate as being "modestly restrictive" on the U.S. economy.
Tom Barkin states that for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting rates, he would need to see either inflation sustainably under control or the economy slowing to a degree that would ensure inflation comes under control.
Approximately two-thirds of the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are academic economists.
During the period from 2009 to 2015, the Atlanta Federal Reserve board did not change interest rates once.
In the 2010s, U.S. inflation consistently remained between 1% and 2%.
The U.S. economy added jobs every month throughout the 2010s.
U.S. GDP growth in the 2010s was stable, staying within a narrow range of 2% to 3%.