Keep pulling the thread on Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak.
The widespread prediction of an "inevitable recession" in the U.S. following recent interest rate hikes is the latest in a series of macroeconomic "false alarms."
The COVID-19 pandemic did not leave a permanent mark on U.S. economic performance, as the economy has returned to its pre-COVID trend output path.
Economic models often fail during crises because they extrapolate incorrectly when unprecedented data points emerge, such as the 14% unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The U.S. economy was less sensitive to recent interest rate hikes than models predicted because a majority of households hold long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak predicts that AI will not turbocharge GDP growth in the short term, but will instead provide a lift over a 10 to 15-year timeframe.
The 2008 financial crisis was a true economic shock that left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy's output.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak believes mainstream economics is overly reliant on models, suffering from a "master model mentality" and "physics envy."
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) generates approximately $12 billion in annual revenues.
Corporate capital expenditures show a very weak empirical correlation with interest rates, as firms invest based on narrative and expected returns rather than just the cost of capital.
A growing share of corporate investment is in intellectual property and software, which have higher depreciation rates than physical assets, necessitating constant reinvestment.
Over the last 40 years, real economy and policy error recessions have become less common, while financial recessions like the 2008 crisis and the dot-com bust represent a larger share of recent macroeconomic risk.
The Uber platform has not demonstrated true productivity growth because it has not lowered the fundamental input costs of a car and a driver, and its prices are often higher than traditional taxis.