Keep pulling the thread on Thomas.
Thomas asserts that the AI infrastructure buildout has shifted from being funded by the cash flows of profitable tech giants like Meta, Google, and Microsoft to now also including leveraged investments from free cash flow negative companies like OpenAI.
Thomas predicts that Oracle could capture 15% of the cloud market share within a few years, growing from its current position of essentially zero.
Thomas believes the AI market has entered an "existential" phase where companies are willing to invest more than their cash flows to win, a significant shift from the previous phase of investing excess profits.
Thomas believes the foundational model market is consolidating around a few key players, specifically identifying OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google as the leaders.
Thomas asserts that the era of data being locked within proprietary SaaS platforms is over, citing a recent strategic shift by Workday.
Workday recently announced it will integrate with Snowflake and Databricks, abandoning its strategy of keeping customer data within its own locked ecosystem.
Thomas predicts that within three years, the default for all enterprise interactions, including meetings, emails, and chats, will be to have them recorded.
Thomas states that the investment market in China is now "functionally not available" to his firm, representing a significant shift from a time when it was an incredible market for investors.
Thomas recalls that during the initial rise of the iPhone, Apple would consistently deliver quarterly earnings that were 3x to 5x higher than consensus estimates.
Thomas identifies a seminal moment in tech investing as when NVIDIA provided guidance for its data center business to grow 100% year-over-year, a figure no one thought was possible at the time.
Thomas believes the competitive intensity among cloud hyperscalers is increasing, moving from a stable oligopoly of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to a more dynamic market that includes new players like Oracle and CoreWeave.
Thomas notes that Broadcom's market capitalization, at a stated $1.4 trillion, is approaching Meta's $1.7 trillion.