Bloomberg Podcasts• Apr 9, 2026• 10:16Interview

We're Living In a New Age of Economic Warfare Says Fishman

From Bloomberg Podcasts

Fishman•Author, 'Choke Points'

Executive Summary

Economic and geographic 'choke points' are being weaponized in a new era of economic warfare, allowing even medium-sized powers like Iran to exert significant global influence.
Iran has successfully used low-cost drones to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, altering global risk calculations and institutionalizing control by charging passage fees, potentially generating $100 billion annually.
The conflict has empowered Iran, enabling direct oil sales to the US and access to its financial system, while the hardline IRGC has consolidated power and is actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
The next major geopolitical choke point is predicted to be clean energy technology (EVs, batteries, solar panels), a sector where China currently dominates the supply chain.

11 quotes

Concerns Raised

Iran's new, institutionalized control over the Strait of Hormuz could generate $100 billion annually, funding its military and nuclear ambitions.
The empowered and hardline IRGC is actively seeking to weaponize its fissile material, making a nuclear Iran more likely.
The US faces a choice between accepting a disadvantageous status quo with Iran or escalating into a potential military quagmire.
China's dominance of clean energy supply chains represents the next major geopolitical and economic vulnerability for the West.

Opportunities Identified

Key Themes

The Weaponization of Economic Choke Points

The discussion centers on how critical nodes in the global economy, such as the US dollar, Chinese rare earths, and the Strait of Hormuz, are being used as instruments of statecraft. This strategy allows nations to inflict significant economic pain and gain leverage without traditional military conflict.

This fundamentally changes the landscape of international relations, creating new vulnerabilities for superpowers and empowering smaller nations to challenge the global order.

Iran's Asymmetric Warfare Success

Iran has effectively used inexpensive drones (costing $20-30k) to threaten high-value global shipping, demonstrating a successful asymmetric strategy. This low-cost, high-impact approach allowed them to control the Strait of Hormuz and achieve concessions that years of diplomacy could not.

This tactic provides a blueprint for other states to challenge more powerful adversaries, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of global supply chains to low-tech, disruptive attacks.

US Foreign Policy Miscalculation

The speaker suggests that previous US administrations avoided direct military conflict with Iran precisely because they feared Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. The current administration may have underestimated Iran's capacity and willingness to retaliate effectively, leading to a strategic setback for the U.S.

This serves as a case study on the limits of conventional military deterrence and the importance of accurately assessing an adversary's capacity for unconventional retaliation.

The Rise of the IRGC and Nuclear Ambitions

Power within Iran has consolidated under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a hardline faction with clear intentions to develop nuclear weapons. Unlike the previous leadership, the IRGC sees nuclear capability as essential for regime survival and deterrence against foreign intervention.

An IRGC-led, nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically increase regional instability and pose a more direct and aggressive challenge to the U.S. and its allies.

The Next Geopolitical Battleground: Clean Energy

The conflict over fossil fuel transit is forecasted to be a precursor to a new struggle over the supply chains for clean energy technologies. China's current dominance in refining rare earths and manufacturing batteries, solar panels, and EVs positions it to control the next generation of critical economic choke points.

This highlights an urgent need for Western nations to diversify their clean energy supply chains to avoid trading one energy dependency for another, more precarious one.

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Topics

Economic Warfare Geopolitical Choke Points Strait of Hormuz Iran US-Iran Relations Asymmetric Warfare Drone Technology Global Shipping Energy Security Oil & Gas Clean Energy Supply Chain Risk China Rare Earth Minerals Nuclear Proliferation IRGC

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