The U.S. and Israel initiated a war based on the flawed assumption that the Iranian regime was fragile and would collapse quickly. This proved to be a significant miscalculation, as the regime demonstrated resilience, strengthened its regional position, and created a strategic quagmire for the U.S.
The Trump administration's urgency to de-escalate the conflict is heavily driven by domestic political pressures. Rising gas prices and declining public support for the war ahead of midterm elections are forcing the White House to seek a diplomatic solution, potentially compromising on its initial maximalist goals.
The negotiations in Islamabad are not direct, relying on Pakistan as a mediator to shuttle messages between the U.S. and Iranian delegations. This indirect format, coupled with Iran's preconditions and the vast differences on core demands, makes progress slow, uncertain, and difficult to achieve in a short timeframe.
Iran has successfully weaponized its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy and trade. This has given Tehran significant leverage in negotiations, allowing it to inflict economic pain and pressure the U.S. and its allies into seeking a ceasefire.
Keep pulling the thread on United States.