Prof G Markets Notify me• Apr 9, 2026• 31:18Interview

Markets Are Betting the Iran War Is Over — Is it?

From Prof G Markets

Ed Elson(Business, technology, and geopolitics analyst…)•John Mowry(Investment analyst at NFJ Investment Group)•Robert Armstrong(US financial commentator, Financial Times)

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Executive Summary

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Keep pulling the thread on Saudi Arabia.

Geopolitical Fragility and Market Volatility The Inflation-Growth-Fed Nexus

8 quotes

Concerns Raised

The US-Iran ceasefire is extremely fragile and could collapse, sending oil prices soaring again.
Sustained high energy prices could act as a regressive tax, pushing inflation higher and potentially tipping the economy into a recession.
The market may be underpricing the risk of a stagflationary environment (higher inflation, lower growth).
The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, caught between fighting inflation and supporting a potentially weakening economy.

Opportunities Identified

Valuation multiples have compressed, creating attractive entry points for companies with strong fundamentals.
Small and mid-cap stocks are outperforming and are attractively valued, particularly if interest rates are cut.
Durable, large-cap companies like Microsoft are trading at historically low multiples, presenting a potential value opportunity.

Key Themes

Research Findings12

A Saudi pipeline, which serves as an alternative to the Hormuz Strait, was bombed.

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

Under the terms of a ceasefire deal, the U.S. agreed to suspend military strikes and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Following news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices surged nearly 2.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 1,300 points.

Crude oil prices fell from $110 to $90 per barrel overnight before settling around $95 per barrel.

Iran halted oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of the global oil supply.

China purchases approximately 80% or more of Iran's oil exports.

Corporate earnings estimates have been rising steadily throughout the recent geopolitical conflict.

Meta's stock increased by over 8% following the release of its new AI model, MuseSpark.

Meta released a new AI model named MuseSpark.

Iran and Pakistan interpret the recent ceasefire deal to include Lebanon, while the United States and Israel assert that it does not.

Topics

Geopolitics US-Iran Relations Strait of Hormuz Oil Prices Energy Markets Inflation Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Market Volatility Valuation Multiples Corporate Earnings Recession Risk Small-Cap Stocks Mid-Cap Stocks Tech Sector Microsoft

Processed Apr 13, 2026Daily intelligence brief → yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini

Markets Are Betting the Iran War Is Over — Is it?

Continue your research

Concerns Raised

Opportunities Identified

Key Themes

Geopolitical Fragility and Market Volatility

The Inflation-Growth-Fed Nexus

Multiple Compression vs. Strong Fundamentals

Identifying Pockets of Opportunity

Research Findings12

Topics