The Montgomery Summit 2026 Notify me• Mar 16, 2026• 42:05ConferencePanel

2026 IPO Market

From The Montgomery Summit · 2026

Michael Brown(Moderator, Fenwick)•Charles Black(Panelist, Equity, Capital Markets Investment Banking, Citi)•Emma Norchet(Panelist, T. Rowe Price)•Carly Roddy(Panelist, JPMorgan Chase)•Jack Cassel(Panelist, NASDAQ)

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Executive Summary

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Market Bifurcation: The AI Winners and Losers Navigating Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds

12 quotes

Concerns Raised

Significant valuation compression for vertical (-20%) and horizontal (-45%) SaaS companies.
Geopolitical uncertainty and elevated market volatility are creating an unpredictable IPO window.
Poor aftermarket performance of recent tech IPOs is dampening investor appetite.
The market is struggling to differentiate between true AI beneficiaries and other software companies, leading to broad skepticism.

Opportunities Identified

Strong investor demand for companies in the AI infrastructure space, including data centers, power, and semiconductors.
A significant backlog of high-quality private companies is ready to go public once a stable window opens.
The potential for mega-IPOs like SpaceX could generate significant excitement and draw capital back into the public markets.
Companies are increasingly adopting a flexible "triple track" process (IPO, M&A, private capital) to maximize exit options.

Key Themes

Research Findings12

Rule of 40 companies that are growth-focused trade at an average revenue multiple of 14x.

Rule of 40 companies that are profitability-focused trade at an average revenue multiple of 4x.

SpaceX is now considering a public offering at some point in the future.

Carly predicts that two of the three major AI-related companies—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—will go public in 2026.

Emma predicts that one of the three major AI-related companies—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—will go public in 2026.

Charlie predicts that two of the three major AI-related companies—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—will go public in 2026.

There were only 23 technology company IPOs in 2025.

There were only 10 technology company IPOs in 2024.

Many software companies are delaying their potential IPOs until the second half of 2026 due to difficulties in achieving reasonable valuations.

The public market is currently bifurcated, strongly favoring companies perceived as "AI winners" over those seen as "AI losers."

Investor interest in the IPO market has shifted towards "picks and shovels" AI companies, including those involved in data centers, power, and semiconductors.

The IPO market is predicted to be strong in Q2 2026.

Topics

IPO Market 2026 Outlook Artificial Intelligence SaaS Valuations Geopolitics Market Volatility Investor Sentiment Retail Investors Institutional Investors Price Discovery Rule of 40 Dual-Class Shares Founder Control SpaceX OpenAI Picks and Shovels Data Centers

Processed Apr 19, 2026Daily intelligence brief → yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini

2026 IPO Market

Continue your research

Concerns Raised

Opportunities Identified

Key Themes

Market Bifurcation: The AI Winners and Losers

Navigating Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds

The Modern IPO Playbook: Preparation and Education

The Evolving Role of Retail vs. Institutional Investors

The 'Jumbo' IPO Effect

Research Findings12

Topics