CHINA!

There is speculation about the possibility of as many as four summits between the leaders of the United States and China occurring this year.

Even a minor positive shift in the tone of US-China relations could cause a significant rally in Chinese assets.

There is a strong consensus within the U.S. national security community that is significantly more hawkish towards China than the country's publicly stated national security strategy.

If the United States were to explicitly state it would not defend Taiwan, China would likely intensify political and economic pressure to force an agreement rather than launch an immediate military invasion.

China's economy has a major vulnerability in its reliance on exports as the primary driver of growth, as the final demand for its goods is largely located in Europe and the United States.

The US Navy's Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, plays a crucial role in securing the seaborne oil supply routes from the Middle East that are vital for China's energy needs.

China's strategic push into electric vehicles is driven by a national security goal to reduce its dependence on seaborne oil imports.

It is predicted that China will require five to ten years to resolve its strategic vulnerability related to its dependency on seaborne oil imports.

After China imposed trade bans on Australian exports in 2020, US companies, including California wine producers, stepped in to supply those products to the Chinese market.

The upcoming US-China summit is expected to produce only relatively small business and economic deals.

Some US states have enacted legislation that prohibits state-level pension funds from investing in China.

Many Canadian and Australian pension funds have withdrawn their investments from China, partly due to geopolitical alignment with the United States.