The era of 'easy globalization' has ended, replaced by great power competition, protectionism, and conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, has fundamentally reordered global energy markets, creating a partitioned oil market and severing Europe's reliance on Russian gas.
Artificial Intelligence is creating unprecedented demand for electricity, forcing a convergence between the tech and energy industries. This dynamic, described as 'AI for energy and energy for AI,' is making power availability a primary constraint on technological growth and revitalizing the role of natural gas in power generation.
The concept of a uniform global energy transition is being replaced by a more complex, multi-speed reality focused on 'energy addition.' This reflects the persistent demand for fossil fuels to support economic growth, especially in the Global South, alongside the build-out of renewables. The IEA's call for $540 billion in annual upstream oil and gas investment underscores this pivot.
In the decade since its first export, the US has become the world's largest LNG supplier, a rise accelerated by the European energy crisis. In parallel, major energy companies are pivoting back to their core oil and gas businesses, spurred by strong returns and the recognition that significant upstream investment is needed to offset decline rates and meet future demand.
The global consensus on climate policy is fragmenting, as evidenced by a contentious recent COP meeting that saw the US exit the process and major emitters like China and India not attend. National interests and economic realities are leading to divergent pathways, moving away from a unified global approach to climate change.
Keep pulling the thread on United States.