The Trump administration's approach to Turkey is defined by a personalized 'bromance' between leaders, deliberately sidelining institutional processes and concerns over democracy and human rights.
Despite improved leader-level relations and alignment on Syria, no substantive progress has been made on key bilateral disputes, including S-400, F-35s, and CAATSA sanctions.
US policy towards Turkey is caught between two conflicting impulses: a pro-authoritarian affinity for Erdogan and a white, Christian nationalist, pro-Israel worldview that is inherently suspicious of Turkey.
Turkey is actively leading a regional coalition to prevent a US military strike on Iran, fearing regional instability, a refugee crisis, and the potential for Kurdish self-governance in a destabilized Iran.
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Concerns Raised
Lack of progress on fundamental bilateral issues (S-400, F-35, CAATSA sanctions) despite superficial warmth.
The potential for a US military strike on Iran, which Turkey vehemently opposes due to fears of regional destabilization.
The growing perception of Turkey and Israel as primary regional rivals, increasing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Trump administration's non-institutional, 'sloppy' approach to diplomacy may create the appearance of progress without achieving substantive results.
Opportunities Identified
Alignment between the US and Turkey on rolling back Kurdish self-rule in Syria.
Turkey's renewed appreciation for its institutional ties with NATO provides a stable channel for engagement.
Turkey's diplomatic leadership in forming a regional coalition against a war with Iran could position it as a key mediator.