Lack of progress on fundamental bilateral issues (S-400, F-35, CAATSA sanctions) despite superficial warmth.
The potential for a US military strike on Iran, which Turkey vehemently opposes due to fears of regional destabilization.
The growing perception of Turkey and Israel as primary regional rivals, increasing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Trump administration's non-institutional, 'sloppy' approach to diplomacy may create the appearance of progress without achieving substantive results.
Opportunities Identified
Alignment between the US and Turkey on rolling back Kurdish self-rule in Syria.
Turkey's renewed appreciation for its institutional ties with NATO provides a stable channel for engagement.
Turkey's diplomatic leadership in forming a regional coalition against a war with Iran could position it as a key mediator.