EPC• Feb 20, 2026• 1:03:10Interview

Unpacking Turkish Foreign Policy: What to expect in 2026 Türkiye-US relations

From EPC

Unpacking Turkish Foreign Policy

Executive Summary

The Trump administration's approach to Turkey is defined by a personalized 'bromance' between leaders, deliberately sidelining institutional processes and concerns over democracy and human rights.
Despite improved leader-level relations and alignment on Syria, no substantive progress has been made on key bilateral disputes, including S-400, F-35s, and CAATSA sanctions.
US policy towards Turkey is caught between two conflicting impulses: a pro-authoritarian affinity for Erdogan and a white, Christian nationalist, pro-Israel worldview that is inherently suspicious of Turkey.
Turkey is actively leading a regional coalition to prevent a US military strike on Iran, fearing regional instability, a refugee crisis, and the potential for Kurdish self-governance in a destabilized Iran.

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Concerns Raised

Lack of progress on fundamental bilateral issues (S-400, F-35, CAATSA sanctions) despite superficial warmth.
The potential for a US military strike on Iran, which Turkey vehemently opposes due to fears of regional destabilization.
The growing perception of Turkey and Israel as primary regional rivals, increasing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Trump administration's non-institutional, 'sloppy' approach to diplomacy may create the appearance of progress without achieving substantive results.

Opportunities Identified

Alignment between the US and Turkey on rolling back Kurdish self-rule in Syria.
Turkey's renewed appreciation for its institutional ties with NATO provides a stable channel for engagement.
Turkey's diplomatic leadership in forming a regional coalition against a war with Iran could position it as a key mediator.

Key Themes

Personalized vs. Institutional Diplomacy

The relationship between the US and Turkey under Trump is characterized by a close personal bond between the leaders, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels. While this 'bromance' has improved the tone of relations and led to alignment on issues like Syria, it has failed to resolve deep-seated institutional problems like sanctions and defense procurement.

This highlights the fragility of the relationship, as it depends on personal chemistry rather than stable, institutional frameworks, making policy unpredictable and transactional.

Conflicting Ideological Impulses in US Policy

The Trump administration's foreign policy is driven by two competing worldviews. One is a pro-authoritarian, transactional impulse that aligns well with President Erdogan's style. The other is a white, Christian nationalist, and strongly pro-Israel stance that views Turkey with suspicion, creating inconsistency and friction in the relationship.

This internal ideological conflict explains the administration's erratic policy towards Turkey, where personal affinity clashes with the priorities of other influential factions, complicating any resolution of major issues.

Shifting Regional Alliances and Rivalries

The US-Turkey dynamic is reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics. Turkey is actively opposing a potential US conflict with Iran and is increasingly viewed by Israel as its primary regional threat. Concurrently, a strategic alignment has formed between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, partly to counter Turkish influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This signifies a major realignment of power in the region, with traditional NATO allies viewing each other as adversaries, impacting security, energy politics, and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond.

Turkey's Dysfunctional Relationship with Europe

While Turkey is rediscovering the value of its institutional ties to the West via NATO, its relationship with the EU remains moribund. The EU accession process, though officially the only framework, is described as a 'straitjacket' that prevents a more functional, strategic partnership from developing, leaving the relationship tired and toxic.

The lack of a viable framework for EU-Turkey relations limits the West's collective ability to engage with Turkey on strategic issues, forcing relations to be managed through NATO or ad-hoc bilateral channels.

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Topics

US-Turkey relations Trump administration Recep Tayyip Erdogan Geopolitics Foreign Policy Middle East Syria Iran Israel Greece Cyprus NATO European Union S-400 F-35 CAATSA sanctions Diplomacy Authoritarianism

Processed Apr 20, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini