US–India ties, AI & Trump’s foreign policy-President of Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace elaborates
From Worldview with Swasti
Tino Cuellar•President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Executive Summary
US-India relations are complex, underpinned by long-term strategic interests but complicated by recent friction over trade and India's ties with Russia.
A new framework trade agreement signals a potential thaw, though details remain pending.
Artificial Intelligence is emerging as a key geopolitical domain, with India positioning itself as a leader to challenge a US-China duopoly and ensure technology diffusion benefits the 'global south'.
The Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly towards China, is characterized by ambiguity, creating uncertainty for allies as it oscillates between seeking a 'grand bargain' and economic 'decoupling'.
Understanding US policy requires looking beyond the White House, as institutions like Congress, the courts, and state governments serve as significant checks on presidential power, especially concerning tariffs and spending.
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Concerns Raised
The lack of clarity and coordination in US foreign policy creates uncertainty for allies.
Short-term diplomatic friction over trade and Russia could undermine long-term US-India strategic alignment.
The final details and implementation of the US-India trade framework agreement are not yet secured.
The potential for a US-China duopoly in controlling the global AI technology stack.
Opportunities Identified
India's emergence as the fastest-growing major economy and its ambition to be a leader in AI.
The foundational, long-term shared interests between the US and India, such as democratic values and a free Indo-Pacific.
The recently concluded framework for a US-India trade deal could reset and strengthen the bilateral relationship.
Building deeper ties between the US and India through non-federal channels like state governments, universities, and diaspora communities.