Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations
From Prof G Conversations
Karim Sadjadpour•Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Executive Summary
The US and Iran are engaged in a high-stakes 'game of chicken,' with the Trump administration applying significant military and economic pressure, making a diplomatic resolution unlikely.
There is a high perceived likelihood (60-66% in prediction markets) of US military action against Iran, which could include targeted strikes and an attempt to assassinate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
The Iranian regime is ideologically rigid and unlikely to compromise, but it faces overwhelming internal opposition, with an estimated 80% of the population desiring change and foreign support.
A stark contrast exists between the anti-American regime and the pro-Western, pro-capitalist aspirations of the Iranian people, presenting a major long-term strategic opportunity for the US if the regime falls.
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Concerns Raised
High probability of military conflict due to irreconcilable diplomatic positions.
Risk of significant regional destabilization from Iranian retaliation against Gulf states and oil infrastructure.
Uncertainty about the outcome of a military strike and the potential for a chaotic power vacuum.
The regime's willingness to fight to the death, given its isolation and lack of exit options.
Opportunities Identified
The Iranian regime is perceived to be on its heels, creating a potential window for decisive action.
Widespread internal opposition (80%+) could be leveraged to support a transition to a new government.
Long-term potential to transform Iran from a primary adversary into a key pro-Western strategic and economic partner.
Aligning US interests with the democratic and free-market aspirations of the Iranian people.