War on the Rocks• Feb 12, 2025• 28:11Interview

Transforming NATO for the Future Fight

From War on the Rocks

Pierre Vendier•Supreme Allied Commander of Transformation, NATO

Executive Summary

NATO is undergoing a critical transformation to adapt to a new era of global conflict, as exemplified by the war in Ukraine, which blends traditional trench warfare with modern cyber, space, and cognitive assaults.
The war in Ukraine has exposed significant weaknesses in the European defense industrial base, which has been slow to ramp up production after decades of underinvestment, and highlights persistent interoperability challenges within the Alliance.
Technological innovation has shifted from the military to the commercial sector, requiring NATO to rapidly adapt and 'weaponize' commercial technologies like AI and cloud computing while navigating complex issues of digital sovereignty.
The speaker, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, emphasizes the necessity of proactive innovation and preparation, drawing on past successes to argue that the Alliance must build capabilities before a crisis, not during one.

10 quotes

Concerns Raised

The European defense industrial base is taking too long (e.g., 1,000 days for shell production) to scale up for wartime needs.
NATO interoperability standards are not consistently applied by member nations, creating critical operational seams and inefficiencies.
The high attrition rate of experienced soldiers in Ukraine underscores the immense challenge of training and scaling forces for high-intensity conflict.
Modern conflict is a 'global war' that includes systemic risks like cyber and cognitive attacks, which can strike at the heart of democratic processes.

Opportunities Identified

Systematically analyzing lessons from the Ukraine war through new institutions like JATEC to accelerate NATO's adaptation.
Leveraging and 'weaponizing' the rapid pace of innovation occurring in the commercial technology sector.
Building a new layer of interoperability focused on modern IT infrastructure, including cloud, 5G, and AI.
Proactively preparing for future crises through wargaming and anticipatory capability development, rather than reacting under pressure.

Key Themes

NATO Transformation and Adaptation

The central theme is NATO's effort to evolve from a peacetime posture to one ready for high-intensity, multi-domain conflict. This involves not just acquiring new technology but also changing mindsets, doctrine, and processes to foster continuous learning and faster adaptation.

The current security environment, marked by the war in Ukraine and systemic competition, demands a more nimble, resilient, and technologically advanced Alliance to maintain credible deterrence and defense.

The War in Ukraine as a Learning Catalyst

The conflict serves as a real-world laboratory for modern warfare, demonstrating a mix of WWI-style attrition and futuristic, tech-driven combat. NATO is institutionalizing the learning process through initiatives like the Joint Analysis Training and Education Center (JATEC) to absorb lessons on everything from drone warfare to industrial capacity.

Analyzing the successes and failures in Ukraine is critical for NATO to avoid repeating mistakes, understand the character of future conflict, and accelerate its own modernization efforts.

Defense Industrial Base and Interoperability

Decades of low defense spending have left Europe's industrial base atrophied and slow to respond to wartime demand, a critical vulnerability. This is compounded by a persistent lack of true interoperability, where even agreed-upon standards (STANAGs) are not fully implemented, hindering seamless combined operations.

Without a robust industrial capacity and deep interoperability, NATO's collective defense promise is weakened, as it cannot sustain a high-intensity conflict or effectively combine the military power of its members.

The Commercialization of Military Innovation

The primary source of technological breakthroughs has shifted from the military-industrial complex to the commercial tech sector. This forces defense establishments to become better at identifying, acquiring, and integrating commercial technologies like AI, cloud, and 5G into military systems.

Future military advantage will be determined by which power can most effectively leverage the rapid innovation cycle of the commercial world, making public-private partnership and agile acquisition essential.

Digital Sovereignty and Geopolitics

The increasing reliance on digital infrastructure creates new geopolitical tensions over data, control, and sovereignty. This is illustrated by European concerns over the U.S. CLOUD Act and the EU's proactive, and sometimes restrictive, approach to regulating AI, reflecting a desire to protect national and regional interests in the digital domain.

Technological competition is intertwined with national sovereignty, and differing regulatory approaches between allies can create friction and barriers to the seamless data sharing required for modern, integrated warfare.

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Topics

NATO Transformation Defense Industrial Base Military Interoperability STANAGs War in Ukraine Lessons Learned JATEC Military Innovation Commercial Technology Artificial Intelligence (AI)Digital Sovereignty US CLOUD Act EU AI Regulation French Military Sahel Conflict Deterrence Multi-Domain Operations

Processed Apr 20, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini