Keep pulling the thread on Afshon Ostovar.
Iran's air defense systems are gone and its missile stockpiles are depleted following its recent conflict with Israel.
Iran's nuclear enrichment program has been set back by months or years, and may be "effectively done" as a deterrent.
After the October 7th attacks, Iran coordinated a unified front of attacks against Israel from proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Following recent Israeli military operations, militant groups in Gaza no longer possess a significant military capacity.
Hezbollah's military capabilities have been "eviscerated" as a result of recent conflict.
Iran is no longer able to overtly access or operate in Syria following recent military developments.
Afshon Ostovar believes it is unlikely Iran could restart its nuclear program in secret due to thorough penetration by Israeli intelligence, which would detect and act against any such attempt.
Recent Israeli and U.S. military strikes have degraded Iran's ability to project power externally but have not weakened the regime's internal security apparatus.
Iranian threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or end cooperation with the IAEA could provoke a preemptive military strike from Israel.
Following its recent conflict with Israel, Iran no longer possesses a credible military deterrent.
In response to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iran launched the largest ballistic missile attack in history against U.S. forces in Iraq.
Iran's leadership misinterpreted the lack of a U.S. military response to its missile attack on U.S. forces as a sign that they were untouchable and that the U.S. would avoid war.