China Power• Jan 15, 2026• 39:31Interview

Operation Absolute Resolve and China’s Takeaways: A Conversation with Ryan Berg and Evan Ellis

From China Power

Ryan Berg

Executive Summary

conducted a successful special operations raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, citing his indictment on narco-trafficking charges.
The Trump administration has installed an interim government and plans to control Venezuela's oil industry, using a naval quarantine to enforce its authority and as leverage against China.
This intervention is framed as part of a new 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,' signaling a broader U.S.
strategy to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere and counter Chinese influence.
China was caught by surprise by the operation and, while expected to frustrate U.S.
plans, its immediate response has been limited to diplomatic pushback.

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Concerns Raised

The long-term U.S. plan for competing with China on non-military fronts like infrastructure and technology in Latin America remains unclear.
Rebuilding Venezuela's collapsed oil industry is a massive undertaking that will require immense investment and time.
The U.S.-backed interim government in Venezuela may resist U.S. pressure on core issues, complicating American control.
China will likely work behind the scenes to frustrate and undermine the U.S.-led political and economic transition in Venezuela.

Opportunities Identified

The U.S. has gained significant leverage over Venezuela's political future and its vast oil reserves.
Control over Venezuelan oil exports provides a new and powerful tool to exert pressure on China.
The successful operation demonstrates advanced U.S. military capabilities and sends a strong message of resolve to regional and global adversaries.
The U.S. can spearhead new regional security initiatives, such as the announced cooperation with Colombia and Venezuela against the ELN.

Key Themes

U.S. Interventionism and the 'Trump Corollary'

The U.S. has moved from pressure tactics to direct military intervention in Venezuela, capturing its head of state. This is explicitly linked to a new 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,' which reasserts U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and signals a willingness to use force to counter extra-hemispheric rivals like China.

This marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, indicating a lower threshold for military action in its 'near abroad' and a renewed focus on consolidating the region as a sphere of influence in the era of great power competition.

Energy as a Geopolitical Weapon

The U.S. plan centers on seizing control of Venezuela's dilapidated oil sector. By enforcing a naval quarantine and exclusively marketing Venezuelan crude, the administration aims to stabilize the country's economy on its own terms and use control over oil flows, particularly to China, as a powerful strategic lever.

This strategy transforms a key global energy resource into a direct tool of U.S. foreign policy, with significant implications for global energy markets, sanctions enforcement, and the economic dimension of the U.S.-China rivalry.

China's Cautious Position in a Contested Region

China was surprised by the U.S. operation and had already been reducing its exposure to the failing Maduro regime. While Beijing is expected to diplomatically oppose the U.S. and attempt to frustrate its long-term plans, its immediate options are limited, and it has historically avoided direct military or security entanglements in the region.

China's reaction highlights the limits of its power projection in the Americas. Its strategy will likely focus on leveraging economic and diplomatic influence behind the scenes to protect its interests without provoking direct confrontation with a newly assertive U.S.

U.S.-Managed Nation-Building

The U.S. has outlined a three-phase plan for Venezuela: economic stabilization, political recovery, and eventual transition to elections. This approach prioritizes stability under a U.S.-backed interim authority over immediate democratic legitimacy, presenting a significant and complex nation-building challenge.

The success of this long-term project is uncertain and fraught with risk, including rebuilding the oil industry, managing internal political factions, and navigating potential friction with the interim government over core sovereignty issues.

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Topics

Venezuela Nicolas Maduro U.S. Foreign Policy China-Latin America Relations Trump Administration Monroe Doctrine Geopolitics Energy Security Oil Sanctions Naval Quarantine Military Intervention Great Power Competition Regime Change Latin America Strategic Competition

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