China's Use of Civilian Landing Craft: A Conversation with Thomas Shugart and Michael Dahm
From China Power
Thomas Shugart, Michael Dahm•Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security; Senior Resident Fellow, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies
Executive Summary
China is leveraging a vast fleet of civilian Landing Craft Tanks (LCTs) to massively augment its amphibious assault capabilities, potentially increasing its over-the-shore vehicle lift capacity by six times compared to its dedicated naval assets.
This strategy is part of a broader military-civil fusion approach, which includes developing containerized weapon systems to rapidly convert merchant ships into auxiliary warships, creating strategic surprise and complicating threat assessments.
The PLA is undertaking a significant, underreported expansion of military infrastructure (airfields, naval bases, pier space), which serves as a leading indicator of its growing capacity to support large-scale, sustained military operations.
Effective countermeasures for Taiwan involve asymmetric strategies, such as the mass production of drones to target vulnerable vehicles on LCTs and the pre-emptive laying of minefields, as China is unlikely to allow such defenses to be prepared once an invasion decision is made.
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Concerns Raised
China's rapid, hard-to-track expansion of amphibious lift capacity via civilian LCTs.
The potential for strategic surprise through the rapid conversion of civilian ships into warships using containerized systems.
The PLA's massive infrastructure build-out indicates serious preparation for large-scale operations.
The risk that Taiwan's key defenses, like minefields, will not be in place before a conflict begins.
Opportunities Identified
Taiwan can leverage asymmetric capabilities, such as mass-produced drones, to exploit the vulnerabilities of LCTs.
The open-deck design of LCTs makes the vehicles they carry highly vulnerable to attack, meaning the ship doesn't need to be sunk to be neutralized.
Focusing intelligence collection on civilian infrastructure like shipyards and analyzing AIS data can provide better strategic warning.