Keep pulling the thread on Thomas Shugart, Michael Dahm.
Civilian landing craft tanks (LCTs) could provide the People's Liberation Army with direct over-the-shore lift capability, filling a logistics gap between an initial beach assault and the capture of a Taiwanese port.
The estimated vehicle capacity of China's civilian landing craft tank (LCT) fleet is approximately six times the total capacity of all the PLA Navy's dedicated beachable landing ships, such as LSTs and LSMs.
China has developed Xuiqiao class landing platforms, which are self-propelled modules that can combine to form a portable bridge system thousands of feet long for civilian ships to dock with and unload troops.
A Chinese shipyard has apparently converted a civilian ship into an auxiliary warship using containerized systems that include radars, gun turrets, defensive systems, and a UAV with a truck-mounted catapult.
China's potential use of containerized systems to rapidly convert civilian ships into auxiliary warships could create strategic surprise, making it difficult for analysts to accurately assess its naval strength.
The People's Liberation Army is expanding its military infrastructure, including airfields, naval bases, pier space, and missile bases.
The People's Liberation Army's extensive military infrastructure build-out is potentially in support of operations planned for 2027.
The identified civilian landing craft tank (LCT) fleet is estimated to provide 180,000 square meters of deck space, enough to transport three of the PLA's heaviest combined arms brigades in a single wave.
The People's Liberation Army appears to be building the capabilities and capacities required to conduct a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan by 2027, though such an operation would still be high-risk.
If Taiwan plans to use minefields for defense against a PLA invasion, the mines must be laid in advance, as China is unlikely to permit their deployment once an invasion decision is made.
At least 125 civilian landing craft tanks (LCTs) have been identified at 11 Chinese shipyards known to produce them.
Analysis of AIS data shows there are more than 1,800 shallow-draft, Chinese-flagged cargo ships with dimensions similar to common landing craft tank (LCT) types.