Defense One Radio, Ep. 201: Conflicts to watch in 2026
From Defense One Radio
Paul Stairs•General John W. Vesey, senior fellow for conflict prevention, and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations
Executive Summary
The number of global armed conflicts is at its highest since World War II, with a shift in focus from counter-terrorism to great power competition and interstate conflict.
The Council on Foreign Relations' Preventive Priorities Survey identifies a US-China conflict over Taiwan, escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, and renewed Middle East conflict as top-tier risks for the coming year.
For the first time, the risk of domestic political violence in the United States is ranked as a high-likelihood, high-impact concern by foreign policy experts, signaling a significant national security vulnerability.
While the U.S.
commercial sector maintains a slim lead in AI development, the Pentagon lags by an estimated five years in adopting this frontier technology, creating a critical gap that erodes the U.S.
military's competitive edge against China.
10 quotes
Concerns Raised
The Pentagon's five-year lag in adopting frontier AI technology.
The rising risk of great power conflict with China over Taiwan or with Russia in Europe.
The high likelihood of significant political violence within the United States.
The degradation of U.S. government capabilities for conflict prevention and strategic foresight.
Opportunities Identified
Accelerating the translation of commercial AI advancements into military applications to regain a competitive edge.
Using expert risk assessments like the CFR survey to focus policymaker attention and resources on the most pressing threats.
Rebuilding institutional capacity for proactive conflict prevention, which is more effective and less costly than reactive crisis management.