David Ochmanek•Senior International/Defense Researcher, RAND
Executive Summary
military superiority has eroded since the Cold War, with peer adversaries like China and Russia developing advanced capabilities that challenge America's ability to project power.
The traditional U.S.
model of warfare—a slow, expeditionary buildup followed by a sequential campaign (the 'Desert Storm' model)—is now a critical vulnerability that adversaries are poised to exploit.
To restore credible deterrence, the U.S.
must fundamentally shift its strategy towards agile, distributed, and mobile forces, leveraging massed, inexpensive, and unmanned systems as exemplified by the DoD's Replicator initiative.
This strategic adaptation is crucial not only for prevailing in a potential conflict but for deterring aggression and maintaining the U.S.-led global alliance system, which is predicated on American military credibility.
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Concerns Raised
The U.S. military's legacy approach to warfare is dangerously outdated and vulnerable.
China and Russia have successfully developed capabilities that negate traditional U.S. military advantages.
Without fundamental changes, the U.S. runs a real risk of losing or failing to deter the next major war.
The erosion of U.S. military credibility threatens to undermine its global alliances and leadership role.
Opportunities Identified
Adopting new operational concepts focused on agile, distributed, and low-signature forces.
Leveraging massed, inexpensive, and unmanned systems via initiatives like 'Replicator' to counter adversary strengths.
Utilizing wargaming to test, refine, and build consensus around new military strategies.
Learning from ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine to accelerate adaptation and innovation.