Deloitte Insights• Mar 11, 2026• 3:50

5 trends shaping the retail industry | Retail Industry Global Outlook 2026 | Deloitte Insights

From Deloitte Insights

Deloitte Insights

Executive Summary

Consumers are structurally shifting towards value-seeking behavior, but value is increasingly defined by non-price factors like quality and service, not just cost.
AI is rapidly moving from pilot programs to core business functions, with a significant majority of retail executives planning to implement agentic AI and AI-powered personalization within two years.
Retailers are preparing for rising supply chain costs by planning significant restructuring, including nearshoring and supplier diversification, to build resilience.
Despite cost pressures, over 80% of retail executives are optimistic about margin expansion in 2026, driven by AI-enabled efficiencies, tighter cost controls, and smarter pricing.

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Concerns Raised

A structural, long-term shift in consumer behavior towards value-seeking and cost-consciousness.
Nearly universal expectation (95% of executives) of rising supply chain costs.
The need to adapt quickly to disruptive technologies like agentic AI to avoid being left behind.

Opportunities Identified

Leveraging AI to achieve hyper-personalization and operational efficiency, driving margin expansion.
Differentiating from competitors based on non-price value factors such as quality, service, and experience.
Bringing marketing capabilities in-house to gain greater control, speed, and insight into customer data.
Restructuring supply chains to build a more resilient and potentially more profitable long-term operating model.

Key Themes

The Evolving Definition of Consumer Value

A structural shift is underway where consumers are more cost-conscious, with 4 in 10 demonstrating deal-driven behaviors. However, value is not solely about price, as up to 40% of consumers perceive value from non-price factors like quality, service, and experience.

This dual focus requires retailers to compete on price while also investing in quality and service to capture a significant segment of the market that prioritizes more than just the lowest cost.

AI's Transition to Prime Time

Artificial intelligence is moving beyond experimental use cases and becoming a central operational tool. Retailers are already seeing 15-20% of referral traffic from AI chat, and over two-thirds plan to implement autonomous 'agentic AI' systems within the next two years.

Retailers must accelerate their AI adoption to remain competitive, as AI is fundamentally changing customer discovery, personalization, and operational efficiency.

AI-Powered Marketing Transformation

Retailers are aggressively bringing marketing functions in-house, with 94% planning to do so, powered by AI. The primary goals are to leverage AI for hyper-personalization at scale and to increase the speed and relevance of customer engagement.

This trend signals a major shift away from traditional marketing agencies towards building internal data and AI capabilities to own the customer relationship directly.

Supply Chain Resilience and Restructuring

With 95% of executives expecting supply chain costs to rise, resilience has become the top priority. In response, two-thirds are prepared to restructure their supply chains through strategies like nearshoring, onshoring, and supplier diversification.

Proactive supply chain transformation is now a critical survival strategy to mitigate risk and control costs in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.

Financial Fortitude and Margin Expansion

Despite anticipating rising costs, over 80% of retail executives are optimistic about expanding margins in 2026. This confidence is rooted in strategies focused on tighter cost controls, AI-driven pricing optimization, and a strategic shift towards higher-margin products.

The focus is shifting to operational excellence and financial discipline, using technology to enhance profitability even in a high-cost, competitive landscape.

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Topics

Retail Industry Outlook 2026 Forecast Consumer Behavior Value-Seeking Consumers Cost-Consciousness Artificial Intelligence (AI)Agentic AI AI Personalization Marketing Technology In-housing Marketing Supply Chain Management Supply Chain Resilience Nearshoring Cost Control Margin Expansion

Processed Apr 20, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini