Wargaming the Next Crisis: A Chinese Blockade of Taiwan
From CSIS
Executive Summary
A CSIS study involving 26 war games concludes that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely trigger a massive, high-attrition naval conflict, potentially the largest since World War II.
The simulations indicate that indirect support for Taiwan, such as a 'Ukraine strategy' or a massive airlift, would be largely ineffective due to the logistical challenges of breaking a naval quarantine.
There is a significant risk of escalation, with 40% of free-play scenarios escalating to high-intensity conventional war, resulting in staggering costs for all parties and severe disruption to global trade.
Key recommendations for deterrence include Taiwan bolstering its energy resilience and fleet control, while the U.S.
strengthens regional alliances and develops diplomatic 'off-ramps' for de-escalation.
12 quotes
Concerns Raised
A Chinese blockade has a high probability of escalating into a full-scale conventional war.
The cost of breaking a blockade would be extremely high, involving the loss of dozens or hundreds of ships for the U.S. and Taiwan.
Indirect support strategies, like those used for Ukraine or the Berlin airlift, are insufficient for Taiwan's needs.
The conflict would cause catastrophic disruption to global trade and international stability.
Opportunities Identified
Deterrence is still possible through coordinated strategic actions.
Taiwan can significantly improve its resilience by securing its cargo fleet and bolstering energy reserves, including nuclear power.
The U.S. can strengthen deterrence by reinforcing regional alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
Developing clear diplomatic 'off-ramps' can provide China with a face-saving way to de-escalate a crisis.