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A potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan could trigger the largest convoy battle since World War II.
In a Chinese blockade scenario, Taiwan and the United States would likely lose dozens of ships while attempting to maintain supply lines, according to CSIS war games.
A 'Ukraine strategy,' where the United States provides support but no direct military forces, was found to be ineffective in a Taiwan blockade scenario in CSIS war games.
In mid-intensity CSIS war game scenarios, the United States and Taiwan were sometimes able to maintain supply lines, but at the cost of losing dozens or even hundreds of ships.
In CSIS war games simulating a Taiwan blockade, 40% (2 out of 5) of the free-play scenarios escalated to a high-intensity conventional conflict.
A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could provoke the formation of a new, NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific region.
A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would disrupt international trade to an extent that it would affect every country globally.
In a blockade scenario, China's strategy would be to restrict Taiwan's imports to compel its surrender.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted 26 war games to analyze the potential outcomes of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
CSIS war games indicated that in a low-level conflict, Taiwan's forces could delay a Chinese blockade but would eventually be overwhelmed by China's larger military.
A massive airlift to Taiwan, similar to the 1948-49 Berlin airlift, would only be able to supply 2% of the island's daily needs.
CSIS recommends that Taiwan should take steps to gain control of its cargo fleet in the event of an emergency.