The core of the analysis is a series of 26 war games conducted by CSIS to model the various potential outcomes of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. These simulations explored scenarios ranging from low-level seizures to full-scale conventional warfare, providing a data-driven basis for strategic recommendations.
A key finding is that a 'limited' blockade is unlikely to remain so, with a high probability of escalating into a major conventional war. In scenarios where the U.S. and Taiwan attempt to break the blockade, both sides suffer devastating losses, with dozens or even hundreds of ships lost.
The analysis explicitly refutes the applicability of certain historical or contemporary models of support. A 'Ukraine strategy' of providing aid without direct military intervention fails because supplies cannot get through, and an airlift akin to the Berlin Airlift would only meet 2% of Taiwan's daily needs.
A blockade of Taiwan would not be a localized conflict. It would profoundly disrupt international trade, affecting every country on the planet, and could catalyze the formation of a new, NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific to counter China.
Keep pulling the thread on United States.