CSIS• Jul 31, 2025• 3:04

Wargaming the Next Crisis: A Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

From CSIS

Executive Summary

A CSIS study involving 26 war games concludes that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely trigger a massive, high-attrition naval conflict, potentially the largest since World War II.
The simulations indicate that indirect support for Taiwan, such as a 'Ukraine strategy' or a massive airlift, would be largely ineffective due to the logistical challenges of breaking a naval quarantine.
There is a significant risk of escalation, with 40% of free-play scenarios escalating to high-intensity conventional war, resulting in staggering costs for all parties and severe disruption to global trade.
Key recommendations for deterrence include Taiwan bolstering its energy resilience and fleet control, while the U.S.
strengthens regional alliances and develops diplomatic 'off-ramps' for de-escalation.

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Concerns Raised

A Chinese blockade has a high probability of escalating into a full-scale conventional war.
The cost of breaking a blockade would be extremely high, involving the loss of dozens or hundreds of ships for the U.S. and Taiwan.
Indirect support strategies, like those used for Ukraine or the Berlin airlift, are insufficient for Taiwan's needs.
The conflict would cause catastrophic disruption to global trade and international stability.

Opportunities Identified

Deterrence is still possible through coordinated strategic actions.
Taiwan can significantly improve its resilience by securing its cargo fleet and bolstering energy reserves, including nuclear power.
The U.S. can strengthen deterrence by reinforcing regional alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
Developing clear diplomatic 'off-ramps' can provide China with a face-saving way to de-escalate a crisis.

Key Themes

Wargaming a Taiwan Blockade

The core of the analysis is a series of 26 war games conducted by CSIS to model the various potential outcomes of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. These simulations explored scenarios ranging from low-level seizures to full-scale conventional warfare, providing a data-driven basis for strategic recommendations.

This systematic wargaming provides policymakers and military planners with a clearer understanding of the immense risks, costs, and strategic dynamics of a potential Taiwan Strait conflict, moving beyond theoretical discussion to simulated outcomes.

High Escalation Risk and Attrition

A key finding is that a 'limited' blockade is unlikely to remain so, with a high probability of escalating into a major conventional war. In scenarios where the U.S. and Taiwan attempt to break the blockade, both sides suffer devastating losses, with dozens or even hundreds of ships lost.

This highlights the extreme danger of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait. Any initial military action, even if intended to be limited, could quickly spiral into a catastrophic global conflict with immense human and economic costs.

The Inadequacy of Indirect Support

The analysis explicitly refutes the applicability of certain historical or contemporary models of support. A 'Ukraine strategy' of providing aid without direct military intervention fails because supplies cannot get through, and an airlift akin to the Berlin Airlift would only meet 2% of Taiwan's daily needs.

This clarifies that defending Taiwan is a fundamentally different challenge than other recent conflicts, likely requiring direct U.S. military intervention and a willingness to engage in high-intensity naval combat to be successful.

Global Geopolitical and Economic Fallout

A blockade of Taiwan would not be a localized conflict. It would profoundly disrupt international trade, affecting every country on the planet, and could catalyze the formation of a new, NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific to counter China.

This underscores that a Taiwan conflict is a global security and economic issue, not just a regional one, making its deterrence a critical priority for the international community.

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Topics

Taiwan Strait China United States Geopolitics Military Strategy War Games CSIS Naval Blockade Convoy Battles Escalation Risk Deterrence Indo-Pacific Security Energy Resilience International Trade Supply Chain Disruption

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