War on the Rocks• Sep 29, 2024• 26:15Interview

The Meaning of Creeping Ukrainian Losses in the East

From War on the Rocks

Mike Kaufman•Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Executive Summary

Russian forces are making steady, grinding advances in the Donbas, with the key city of Pokrovsk now under direct threat of siege and destruction.
Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region is a tactical success but has not forced a major strategic diversion of Russian forces, serving primarily as political leverage for securing advanced Western weapons.
Both Ukraine and Russia face significant long-term sustainability challenges; Ukraine struggles with manpower quality after delayed mobilization, while Russia's economy is overheating and faces constraints heading into 2025.
The war is characterized by escalating long-range strike campaigns, with Russia targeting Ukraine's power grid distribution and Ukraine increasing its use of sophisticated drones against targets deep inside Russia.

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Concerns Raised

The likely fall of Pokrovsk and the steady erosion of Ukrainian positions in the Donbas.
The poor quality and exhaustion of Ukrainian frontline units due to delayed mobilization.
Russia's effective strategy of fragmenting Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter.
Russia's continued ability to sustain its war machine via sanctions evasion and support from China, Iran, and North Korea.

Opportunities Identified

Ukraine's expanding long-range drone strike capability could inflict significant costs on Russia over time.
Russia's overheating economy, high inflation, and labor shortages may constrain its ability to sustain the war effort at current intensity in 2025.
The Kursk incursion could provide political leverage for Ukraine to secure permission for long-range strikes with US-supplied weapons.

Key Themes

Russian Offensive Momentum in Donbas

Russia is methodically pressing Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, capturing territory and threatening key logistical hubs. The city of Pokrovsk is now within artillery range and faces a likely siege, the fall of which would represent a significant step towards Russian control of the Donbas.

This highlights the severe pressure on Ukraine's undermanned and exhausted frontline units and underscores the strategic consequences of its delayed mobilization efforts.

The Kursk Incursion: Tactical Success, Strategic Stalemate

Ukraine's operation inside Russia's Kursk region has achieved tactical gains but has failed to draw significant Russian forces away from the main front in the Donbas. Kyiv is attempting to leverage this operation politically to persuade the U.S. to authorize the use of long-range American weapons against targets inside Russia.

This demonstrates Ukraine's strategy of creating new fronts to gain political and operational leverage, even if the direct military impact on the primary conflict zone is limited.

A War of Exhaustion and Manpower

The conflict is fundamentally a race to see which military will become exhausted first. While Ukraine has increased the quantity of its personnel, the quality and morale of new recruits are concerns, a direct result of President Zelensky's delayed mobilization decision. Russia maintains a significant firepower advantage but is also taking heavy losses.

The long-term outcome of the war may depend less on tactical battlefield victories and more on which side can better generate, train, and sustain its forces over the next 6-12 months.

Economic and Industrial Warfare

Both sides are targeting the other's economic and industrial capacity. Russia is systematically fragmenting Ukraine's electrical grid to disrupt power distribution, while Ukraine is expanding its drone strikes on Russian depots and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia's war economy is overheating, facing severe inflation and labor shortages, posing a major challenge for 2025.

The war's sustainability is critically linked to economic resilience and the ability to disrupt the opponent's industrial base, making economic indicators as important as battlefield reports.

Technological Adaptation and Counter-Adaptation

A rapid cycle of technological innovation is underway, particularly in drone warfare. Ukraine is developing more sophisticated long-range drones with non-GPS guidance systems (e.g., computer vision), while Russia is deploying rudimentary but targeted countermeasures, such as placing car tires on strategic bombers to confuse AI-based targeting.

This innovation race highlights the evolving nature of modern conflict, where success depends on the ability to rapidly develop and deploy new technologies and effective counters.

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Topics

Ukraine War Donbas Pokrovsk Kursk Incursion Russian Military Strategy Ukrainian Military Strategy War of Attrition Mobilization Drone Warfare Electronic Warfare Sanctions Evasion Russian Economy Energy Infrastructure Military Technology Geopolitics

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