Russia is methodically pressing Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, capturing territory and threatening key logistical hubs. The city of Pokrovsk is now within artillery range and faces a likely siege, the fall of which would represent a significant step towards Russian control of the Donbas.
Ukraine's operation inside Russia's Kursk region has achieved tactical gains but has failed to draw significant Russian forces away from the main front in the Donbas. Kyiv is attempting to leverage this operation politically to persuade the U.S. to authorize the use of long-range American weapons against targets inside Russia.
The conflict is fundamentally a race to see which military will become exhausted first. While Ukraine has increased the quantity of its personnel, the quality and morale of new recruits are concerns, a direct result of President Zelensky's delayed mobilization decision. Russia maintains a significant firepower advantage but is also taking heavy losses.
Both sides are targeting the other's economic and industrial capacity. Russia is systematically fragmenting Ukraine's electrical grid to disrupt power distribution, while Ukraine is expanding its drone strikes on Russian depots and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia's war economy is overheating, facing severe inflation and labor shortages, posing a major challenge for 2025.
A rapid cycle of technological innovation is underway, particularly in drone warfare. Ukraine is developing more sophisticated long-range drones with non-GPS guidance systems (e.g., computer vision), while Russia is deploying rudimentary but targeted countermeasures, such as placing car tires on strategic bombers to confuse AI-based targeting.
Keep pulling the thread on Mike Kaufman.